US Treasuries
- Monday’s range for UST 10y: 4.27% – 4.33%, closing at 4.325%
- Fed’s Bostic: now sees just one rate cut this year due to tariffs
Bloomberg: US Treasuries Fall on Signs That Trump Will Dilute April Tariffs
US Treasuries fell, a sign that investors are favoring riskier assets, after reports that the tariffs President Donald Trump is set to announce next month will be more targeted than he has indicated.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
Dollar Index
Here is an hourly chart of the 10-year yield over the last three weeks. It has been within a 20-basis-point range. Interestingly, many individual days have seen 5 to 10 bps moves. Yet, these moves tend to reverse quickly, and we see little movement overall.
If William Faulkner was a bond trader, he might say, “It’s all sound and fury, signifying nothing.”
S&P 500 stock chart with recent moves highlighted.
10-Year Yield Chart
Now at the top of the recent range.
Peak or breakout?
In the News…
OilPrice: New Oil Projects Set to Flood Market in 2025
This year will see the highest amount of new oil supply in a decade, according to data analyzed by Raymond James that showed projected global additions of nearly 3 million barrels daily. But only if the price is right.
Arbor Data Science Podcast: Featuring Sam Rines discussing the latest on the Housing Market:
Arbor Data Science: Commercial Real Estate Delinquency Rates Continue Their Descent
Arbor Data Science: Seizures of Egg Products at US Border Surpass Seizures of Fentanyl
In the News Today…
SupplyChainBrain: ‘Eggflation’ Prompts Shoppers to Try to Smuggle Eggs into U.S.
There has been a 48% increase in eggs being detained at U.S. ports of entry this fiscal year compared with the same time last fiscal year, according to Customs and Border Patrol. The Guardian reports that, in San Diego, these “egg interception” cases have increased by a whopping 158%. People caught trying to smuggle eggs into the U.S. are fined $300.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 3/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity
- 3/25/2025 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM
- 3/25/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA
- 3/25/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA /S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA
- 3/25/2025 at 08:40am EST: Fed’s Kugler Gives Speech on economy, Entrepreneurship
- 3/25/2025 at 09:05am EST: Fed’s Williams Gives Opening Remarks
- 3/25/2025 at 10:00am EST: New Home Sales & New Home Sales MoM
- 3/25/2025 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence
- 3/25/2025 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Present Situation & Conf. Board Expectations
- 3/25/2025 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index & Richmond Fed Business Conditions
- 3/25/2025: Building Permits & Building Permits MoM
- 3/26/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 3/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Durable Goods Orders & Durables Ex Transportation
- 3/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air & Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 3/26/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Kashkari Hosts Fed Listens, Conversation
- 3/26/2025 at 01:10pm EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Economy, Monetary Policy
- 3/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ & Wholesale Inventories MoM
- 3/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Consumption & GDP Price Index
- 3/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index QoQ & Advance Goods Trade Balance
- 3/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims & Retail Inventories MoM & Continuing Claims
- 3/27/2025 at 10:00am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM & Pending Home Sales NSA YoY
- 3/27/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
- 3/27/2025 at 04:00pm EST: Fed’s Barkin Gives Speech, Q&A
- 3/28/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income & Personal Spending & Real Personal Spending
- 3/28/2025 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM & PCE Price Index YoY
- 3/28/2025 at 10:00am EST: Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
- 3/28/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment & U. of Mich. Current Conditions
- 3/28/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Expectations & U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation & U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 3/28/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- 3/28/2025 at 12:15pm EST: Fed’s Barr Gives Speech on Banking Policy
- 3/28/2025 at 03:30pm EST: Fed’s Bostic Moderates Panel on Housing Finance
- 3/31/2025 at 09:45am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
- 3/31/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity