US Treasuries
- 1st daily support is 4.475/4.49 56% to hold
- 2nd daily support is 4.54/4.55
- 1st weekly support at 4.51/4.53 57% to hold
- 2nd weekly support at 4.65/4.67 90% to hold
- 1st quarterly support at 4.425/4.495 Has held for 4 quarters
- 1st daily resistance is 4.385/4.40
- 2nd daily resistance is 4.345/4.36
- 1st weekly resistance at 4.31/4.33 86% to hold
- 2nd weekly resistance at 4.23/4.25 90% to hold
TIPS by Maturity (data through 3/18/2026)
Week over Week Changes by Maturity
- < 2 years: $24.6 Bn on 3/11/2026 to $23.7 Bn on 3/18/2026 = ($0.9 Bn)
- 2 – 6 years: $2.8 Bn on 3/11/2026 to $4.7 Bn on 3/18/2026 = $1.9 Bn
- 6 – 11 years: $0.3 Bn on 3/11/2026 to $1.2 Bn on 3/18/2026= $0.9 Bn
- > 11 years: $1.9 Bn on 3/11/2026 to $1.6 Bn on 3/18/2026 = ($0.3 Bn)
US Treasury Trade Fails
As of 3/26/2026, U.S. Treasury Fails were $68.53 billion and U.S. Agency Fails were $6.73 million. 
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
Now a September rate HIKE is one the table.
10-year yield now 4.46%, highest since May
Today is the 20th trading day since the war began. As the bottom panel shows, the 10-year yield is up 51 bps.
If it rises another 2 bps, it will be the biggest 20 day rise in the 10-year yield in 3 years (SVB failure in March 2023)
Consistent with the fed fund futures pricing above is the 2-year note. As this chart shows, it just topped 4% (blue) and is trading at 39 bps above the target funds rate (bottom panel).
Typically, the 2-year note yield trades this far above the target funds rate (orange) when the Fed is hiking … and the fed fund futures market is pricing the first hike in 6 months.
In the News
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 3/30/2026 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity
- 3/30/2026 at 10:30am EST: Fed’s Powell in Moderated Discussion
- 3/30/2026 at 04:00pm EST: Fed’s Williams Speaks on the Economy
- 3/31/2026 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM / S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA
- 3/31/2026 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA / S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA
- 3/31/2026 at 09:45am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
- 3/31/2026 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence / Conf. Board Present Situation / Conf. Board Expectations
- 3/31/2026 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings / JOLTS Job Openings Rate
- 3/31/2026 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Quits Level / JOLTS Quits Rate
- 3/31/2026 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Layoffs Level / JOLTS Layoffs Rate
- 3/31/2026 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
- 3/31/2026 at 12:00pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks at Econ Mobility Project
- 3/31/2026 at 03:00pm EST: Fed’s Barr Discusses Stablecoin Regulation
- 3/31/2026 at 05:10pm EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Small Business
- 4/01/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 4/01/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 4/01/2026 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM / Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
- 4/01/2026 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales ex Auto and Gas / Retail Sales Control Group
- 4/01/2026 at 09:05am EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy
- 4/01/2026 at 09:10am EST: Fed’s Barr Speaks on AI and Consumer Issues
- 4/01/2026 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
- 4/01/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM manufacturing / ISM Prices Paid / ISM New Orders
- 4/01/2026 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories / ISM Employment
- 4/01/2026: Wards Total Vehicle Sales
- 4/02/2026 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY / Challenger Job Cuts Total
- 4/02/2026 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance / Imports MoM / Exports MoM
- 4/02/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg
- 4/02/2026 at 08:30am EST: Continuing Claims
- 4/03/2026 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
- 4/03/2026 at 08:30am EST: Change in Private Payrolls / Change in Manufact. Payrolls
- 4/03/2026 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Change
- 4/03/2026 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM / Average Hourly Earnings YoY
- 4/03/2026 at 08:30am EST: Average Weekly Hours All Employees
- 4/03/2026 at 08:30am EST: Unemployment Rate / Labor Force Participation Rate / Underemployment Rate
- 4/03/2026 at 08:30am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / S&P Global US Composite PMI