US Treasuries
- UST 10s on Tuesday closed at 4.06%
- 1st weekly support at 4.035% / 4.06% 90% to hold on the week
- 2nd weekly support at 4.11% / 4.125% 90% to hold on the week
- –> 1st monthly support at 4.065% / 4.09% 90% to hold on the week [this has held for 2 months]
- –> 2nd monthly support at 4.14% / 4.16%
- 1st weekly resist at 3.91% / 3.92% 90% to hold on the week
- 2nd weekly resist at 3.825% / 3.84%
- –> 1st monthly resist at 3.83% / 3.855%
Today’s Fed Speakers:
Conference Call Friday, March 06, 2026, Featuring Jim Bianco
2-day rise in the 10-year yields is now the highest since Liberation Day.
*IRAQ STARTS SHUTTING OIL OUTPUT AT RUMAILA AS STORAGE FILLS
Crude oil is up 15% since Friday’s close.
Yesterday, the national average gasoline price jumped 11.2 cents (bottom panel).
This exceeded the largest one-day jump after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War in March 2022 of 10.9 cents. Only the early September 20025 one-day jump of 19 cents was larger. This was when Category 5 Hurricane Katrina tore up oil infrastructure in the Gulf around New Orleans.
Keep in mind this is the beginning of the month. If this gasoline jump holds, we could see a big headline March CPI. Will it be rationalized away? Yes. But if you want the Fed to cut rates, things just got a lot more complicated.
The SPX is now down ~2.5%. As the red annotations show, the 10-year yield is 5 bps lower to 4.06%. Bonds are being bought as crash insurance.
This probably means stocks have to crash to keep bonds from trading back to 4.11%.
In the News
OilPrice: U.S. Not Planning To Tap Strategic Petroleum Reserve Immediately
FarmPolicyNews: Farmers Increasingly Rejecting Data Center Bids for Land
Reuters: Risks to Western aluminum supply rise as Iran war escalates
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 3/04/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 3/04/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 3/04/2026 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / S&P Global US Composite PMI
- 3/04/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index / ISM Services Prices Paid
- 3/04/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services New Orders / ISM Services Employment
- 3/04/2026 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Releases Beige Book
- 3/05/2026 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY / Total
- 3/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM and YoY / ex Petroleum
- 3/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM and YoY
- 3/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity / Unit Labor Costs
- 3/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 3/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM / Ext Auto MoM / Ex Auto and Gas / Retail Sales Control Group
- 3/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
- 3/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: Change in Private Payrolls / Change in Manufact. Payrolls / Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg
- 3/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM / YoY / Average Weekly Hours All Employees
- 3/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: Unemployment Rate / Labor Force Participation Rate / Underemployment Rate
- 3/06/2026 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
- 3/06/2026 at 01:30pm EST: Fed’s Hammack Speaks at Monetary Policy Forum
- 3/06/2026 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
- 3/07/2026 – 03/19/2026: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
- 3/09/2026 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
- 3/10/2026 at 06:00am EST: NFIB Small Business Optimism
- 3/10/2026 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales / MoM
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Noteworthy Before-the-Open Earnings Releases
Noteworthy After-the-Close Earnings Releases
