US Treasuries
- UST 10s on Wednesday closed at 4.08%
- 1st weekly support at 4.035% / 4.06%
- 2nd weekly support at 4.11% / 4.125%
- –> 1st monthly support at 4.065% / 4.09% 90% to hold on the week [this has held for 2 months]
- –> 2nd monthly support at 4.14% / 4.16% 90% to hold on the week
- 1st weekly resist at 3.91% / 3.92% 90% to hold on the week
- 2nd weekly resist at 3.825% / 3.84%
- –> 1st monthly resist at 3.83% / 3.855% 90% to hold on the week
Jim Bianco: The bond market has noticed as the 10-year yield is up 15 bps since Friday’s close. This is the largest such yield rise since May 2025.
Bloomberg: Fed’s Beige Books Shows Weaker Consumer Is Weighting on Sales
Bloomberg: Warsh Nominated for Fed Chair, Path to Confirmation Unclear
Fed’s Miran: Says He Still Wants Rate Cuts Despite Iran War
Conference Call Friday, March 06, 2026, Featuring Jim Bianco
The New York Times: Top Official, Wary of Inflation, Calls for Extended Rate Pause
Jim Bianco: Beth Hammack is a former Goldman Sachs Treasurer, head of the TBAC (Treasury Advisory Borrowing Committee), and now the head of the Cleveland Fed. She might be the most hawkish member of the Fed.
From the NYT:
Ms. Hammack considers the Fed’s policy settings to be at “neutral,” meaning rates are neither stoking consumer demand nor restraining it. With inflation too high and the labor market relatively steady, the central bank should keep its focus trained on stamping out price pressures, she said.
“It’s important to make sure that we’re maintaining policy at a level where we can drive inflation back down to target while balancing any potential softness in the labor market,” she said. That may include the Fed’s eventually entertaining rate increases, something that would no doubt anger Mr. Trump, who wants significantly lower interest rates.
Jim Bianco: I’m just going off my perception, but she might be the first voting member of the FOMC to now raise the idea that the next move will be a hike.
*US FEB. ISM SERVICES PMI AT 56.1, HIGHEST SINCE 2022; EST. 53.5
Boom!
And don’t forget Monday’s Manufacturing PMI was also a “Boom.”
These are the first two economic data points for March; the third March data point will be payrolls on Friday. Just looking at these two alone says the economy smokin!
Update, you could argue that ADP was another report on the latest data. It also beat.
*ADP US FEB. PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT RISES 63,000; EST. +50K
Going into the Iran war, the economy was “moving.” Now we could be adding more inflation, from energy.
In the News
Bloomberg: Money Fund Assets Rise to Record $8.27 Trillion in Dash for Cash
OilPrice: U.S. and Japan Ponder Nuclear Energy Project in Massive $550 Billion Deal
InsuranceNewsNet: Geopolitical instability and risk raise fears of Black Swan scenarios
Arbor Data Science: Global Supply Chain Special Edition: Strait of Hormuz
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 3/05/2026 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY / Total
- 3/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM and YoY / ex Petroleum
- 3/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM and YoY
- 3/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity / Unit Labor Costs
- 3/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 3/05/2026 at 07:00pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Foreign Policy Association
- 3/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM / Ext Auto MoM / Ex Auto and Gas / Retail Sales Control Group
- 3/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
- 3/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: Change in Private Payrolls / Change in Manufact. Payrolls / Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg
- 3/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM / YoY / Average Weekly Hours All Employees
- 3/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: Unemployment Rate / Labor Force Participation Rate / Underemployment Rate
- 3/06/2026 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
- 3/06/2026 at 10:15am EST: Fed’s Daly & Paulson Participate in Panel Discussion
- 3/06/2026 at 01:20pm EST: Fed’s Collins Delivers Keynote Address
- 3/06/2026 at 01:30pm EST: Fed’s Hammack Speaks at Monetary Policy Forum
- 3/06/2026 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
- 3/07/2026 – 03/19/2026: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
- 3/09/2026 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
- 3/10/2026 at 06:00am EST: NFIB Small Business Optimism
- 3/10/2026 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales / MoM
- 3/11/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 3/11/2026 at 08:30am EST: CPI MoM / YoY and Core CPI MoM / YoY and Core Index NSA
- 3/11/2026 at 08:30am EST: Real Avg Hourly Earnings YoY / Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY
- 3/11/2026 at 02:00pm EST: Federal Budget Balance
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Thursday, March 5, 2026
Noteworthy Before-the-Open Earnings Releases
Noteworthy After-the-Close Earnings Releases
