End of Day Summary – 4/30/2025 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

US Treasuries

Wednesday’s range for UST 10y: 4.13% – 4.225%, closing at 4.17%

Bloomberg: US Keeps Long-Term Debt Sales Guidance, May Enhance Its Buybacks

The US Treasury retained its guidance on keeping the issuance of longer-dated Treasuries unchanged for at least “several quarters,” and indicated that it may beef up its program of buying back older debt.

Bloomberg: Bond Mutual Funds See Biggest Outflows Since 2022 as ETFs Gain

In April’s tariff-driven market turbulence, investors yanked roughly $60 billion from fixed-income mutual funds, while bond ETFs overall weathered the storm.

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

Agency Bullets

We saw trading today in the New TVA 5.25 2/55
The issue came to market at +60 vs ct30s in February
Trading today ~+72bps vs ct30s

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Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco

This is why net exports matter this quarter. The chart only shows post-covid history since the scales were too large back then, but net exports took a 4.83% bite out of GDP. With data going back to 1947, that was its largest subtraction from the headline number on record.

And as we wrote in Newsclips yesterday, much of this was likely due to companies front-running the threat of tariffs. Imports subtract from GDP. This could very possibly bounce back in future GDP releases now that companies have pulled forward their imports. No need to restock shelves in the future.

If all the talk of the canceled sailing of container ships to the US is true, then the yellow bar (net exports) in Q1 showing -4.83% drag to GDP will be hugely positive in Q2.

The idea is that companies pulled forward their inventory needs. In the next quarter or two, they won’t be importing anything. It is possible exports could outpace imports by a wide margin.

But, I think regardless of how long the trade war lasts, companies won’t have this huge rush of imports like they did in Q1.

It’s about imports (orange line). It surged in Q1 to beat tariffs.

That caused net exports to plunge, dragging down GDP.

If imports dramatically slow in Q2, that will cause imports (orange line above) to plunge, driving net exports (chart immediately above) straight up. This is a positive to the GDP calculation.

An import is “lost GDP.” The product was not made in the US. And export is “gained GDP.” It was made in the US and sold elsewhere. This is how GDP math works.

If we are going into recession, why will the Fed not cut for months, if not longer?

Inflation expectations. They are up because of tariffs. The Fed did exactly the same thing in 2022.

Q1 2022 had negative GDP. What did the Fed do? Hike 75 bps at a meeting starting in Q2 because they were worried about inflation.

Q1 2025, negative GDP and 70% probability of a recession. So, what is the Fed doing? Worrying about “unanchored” inflation and not cutting.

In Other News…

SupplyChainBrain: New Port Fees Could Derail U.S. LNG Dominance

The American Petroleum Institute (API) is urging the Trump administration to reconsider fees on Chinese-built ships docked at U.S. ports, with the gas and oil coalition claiming that the liquid natural gas industry has no way of complying with the new requirements.

Arbor Data Science:

CNBC: Homebuyer mortgage demand drops further, as economic uncertainty roils the housing market

Mortgage rates didn’t move much last week, but homebuyers continued to pull back amid concerns over the broader economy.

Nick Gerli on X:

Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak

5/01/2025 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY
5/01/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg
5/01/2025 at 08:30am EST: Continuing Claims
5/01/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing
5/01/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Manufacturing/ISM Prices Paid/ISM New Orders/ISM Employment
5/01/2025 at 10:00am EST: Construction Spending MoM
5/01/2025: Wards Total Vehicle Sales
5/02/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls/Change in Private Payrolls
5/02/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Manufacturing Payrolls
5/02/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Change
5/02/2025 at 08:30am EST: Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
5/02/2025 at 08:30am EST: Unemployment Rate
5/02/2025 at 08:30am EST: Labor Force Participation Rate
5/02/2025 at 08:30am EST: Underemployment Rate
5/02/2025 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM and YoY
5/02/2025 at 08:30am EST: Average Weekly Hours All Employment
5/02/2025 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders / Factory Orders Ex Trans
5/02/2025 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
5/03/2025 at 12:50pm EST: Fed’s Cook Gives Commencement Address
5/05/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI & S&P Global US Composite PMI
5/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index / Prices Paid / New Orders/ Employment
5/06/2025 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance
5/07/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
5/07/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Rate Decision
5/07/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate
5/07/2025 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit

End of Day Summary – 4/30/2025

Intraday News • April 30, 2025

Edited by Kristen Radosh & Kylie Leverenz

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