US Treasuries
- Tuesday’s range for UST 10y: 4.12% – 4.26%, closing at 4.25%
- Fed’s Daly: says policy is in good place amid trace uncertainty
- Tomorrow (4/09/2025 at 02:00pm EST): FOMC Meeting Minutes
Bloomberg: Shaking Faith in US Safe Havens Is a Dangerous Gamble
It is a strange time for America’s “exorbitant privilege,” the idea that the dollar and Treasury securities occupy a unique position of trust among investors.
Marketwatch: Even ‘safe haven’ trades like Treasurys are falling on Trump’s tariffs. What does that tell investors?
The roughly $28 trillion U.S. Treasury market was supposed to be a safe port to ride out the storm as President Donald Trump’s blanket tariffs send shockwaves through global markets.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Join Us for the Next Conference Call: Thursday, April 10, 2025, Featuring Jim Bianco
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
Top 10 foreign holders of US debt, which also happens to be any country holding at least $300B.
Note that the ratio fell (green, above) because the Fed via QE outpaced foreign buying.
The Fed stopped QE in 2022 and the ratio stopped going down.
In the News…
Bloomberg: Trump’s Tariffs Leave Economists Fixated on One Word: Stagflation
Americans should brace for a toxic combination of weak growth and high prices.
Arbor Data Science: Top 20 Commodity Price Changes from 2025 Tariffs
Insurance Edge: US News: Insurers Set to Bump Up Premiums, Citing Trump Tariffs
The US homeowners are grappling with soaring insurance premiums, now the highest among surveyed nations, as rising rebuild costs compound financial pressure. The recent tariffs on imported construction materials—especially from China—threaten to further inflate costs, prompting insurers to reassess pricing strategies.
OilPrice: Job Numbers Rise in Alaska’s Arctic Thanks to Oil Projects
The development of oil projects in Alaska’s North Slope and Arctic is boosting jobs growth in these areas more than the average for the state, according to the latest figures by the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
Car Dealership Guy:
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 4/09/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 4/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM & Whole Inventories MoM
- 4/09/2025 at 11:00am EST: Fed’s Barkin Speaks to Economic Club of Washington DC
- 4/09/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 4/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI MoM & CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
- 4/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI YoY & CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
- 4/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI Index NSA
- 4/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: Real Average Hourly Earnings & Real Average Weekly Earnings
- 4/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims
- 4/10/2025 at 09:30am EST: Fed’s Logan Gives Welcome Remark
- 4/10/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Schmid Speaks on Economy, Policy
- 4/10/2025 at 12:00pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Economic Club of NY
- 4/10/2025 at 12:30pm EST: Fed’s Harker Speaks on Fintech
- 4/10/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Federal Budget Balance
- 4/11/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM/ PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
- 4/11/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM; PPI Final Demand YoY
- 4/11/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY and PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY
- 4/11/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / U. of Mich. Current Conditions
- 4/11/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Expectations/ U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / U. of Mich. 5 – 10 Yr Inflation
- 4/11/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on U.S. Economy
- 4/11/2025 at 11:00am EST: Fed’s Williams Speaks on Outlook, Monetary Policy
- 4/14/2025 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
- 4/14/2025 at 06:00pm EST: Fed’s Harker Speaks on Role of Fed
- 4/14/2025 at 07:40am EST: Fed’s Bostic Speaks in Fireside Chat on Policy
- 4/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 4/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM & Import Price Index ex Petroleum & Import Price Index YoY
- 4/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM & Export Price Index YoY