US Treasuries
- Monday’s range for UST 10y: 4.40% – 4.465%, closing at 4.45%
- Fed’s Kluger: sees significant tariff impact despite recent news
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
Back to positive
I show the change in US stocks since Liberation Day above. All stock index price returns are now positive.
Below is the same chart for the Treasury Yield curve. Post-Liberation Day yields are higher across the entire yield curve.
So what stops the stock market rally? The bond market still needs to be funded.
Remember the old adage: there are no bad bonds, there’s only bad prices. The Treasury market WILL GET FUNDED! It will take yields high enough to divert money from every other market to get that funding. If that means yields have to go so high that they suck the life out of all other markets … it has done that before.
So, if the Treasury market needs trillions to fund the deficit, and inflation is staying sticky (as we will have a big increase in tariffs, just not as big as last week), and the Fed is not cutting rates (a few posts above), at what level are yields competitive enough to get the funding?
My take, unless/until circumstances change, such as a decline in hard economic data (which has not happened) or risk markets like stocks reverse hard … the 10-year was 4.85% in January … let’s start with this level.
In Other News 
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said she is suspending imports of livestock through the Mexican border on a “month-by-month basis” to protect U.S. cattle from the threat of a dangerous, flesh-eating parasite infestation.
Cattle inventories are lowest in generations while consumer beef demand remains robust
Arbor Data Science:
The average electric monthly bill for U.S. residential customers was $144 in 2024, but average costs for customers in some states were much higher or lower.
By the numbers: 45.1 million people are projected to travel at least 50 miles from home between May 22 and May 26. That’s an increase of 1.4 million travelers from last year and surpasses the record 44 million people who traveled in 2005.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 5/13/2025 at 06:00am EST: NFIB Small Business Optimism
- 5/13/2025 at 08:30am EST: Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY
- 5/13/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI MoM / CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM / CPI YoY
- 5/13/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY / CPI Index NSA / CPI Core Index SA
- 5/13/2025 at 08:30am EST: Real Avg Hourly Earnings YoY
- 5/14/2025 at 05:15am EST: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Central Bank Research
- 5/14/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 5/14/2025 at 09:10am EST: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 5/14/2025 at 05:40pm EST: Fed’s Daly Speaks in Fireside Chat
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM / Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas / Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM / PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand YoY / PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Control Group
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 5/15/2025 at 08:40am EST: Fed’s Powell Gives Opening Remarks at Framework Conference
- 5/15/2025 at 09:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM
- 5/15/2025 at 09:15am EST: Capacity Utilization / Manufacturing (SIC) Production
- 5/15/2025 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
- 5/15/2025 at 10:00am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 5/15/2025 at 02:05pm EST: Fed’s Barr Gives Opening Remarks
- 5/15/2025 – 5/16/2025: 2nd Thomas Laubach Research Conference
- 5/16/2025: Fed’s Barkin Gives Commencement Speech
- 5/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts / Housing Starts MoM
- 5/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Building Permits / Building Permits MoM
- 5/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM and YoY / Import Price Index ex Petroleum
- 5/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM and YoY
- 5/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 5/16/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
- 5/16/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 5/16/2025 at 04:00pm EST: Net Long-term TIC flows / Total Net TIC Flows
- 5/16/2025 at 09:40pm EST: Fed’s Daly Gives Commencement Address
- 5/16/2025: Fed’s Barkin Gives Commencement Address
- 5/18/2025 at 05:20pm EST: Fed’s Williams Gives Commencement Address
- 5/18/2025 – 5/21/2025: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s 2024 Financial Markets
- 5/19/2025 at 08:30am EST: Bostic Gives Opening Remarks
- 5/19/2025 at 08:45am EST: Fed’s Jefferson Gives Keynote, Bostic Moderates
- 5/19/2025 at 08:45am EST: Fed’s Williams Speaks in Moderated Discussion
- 5/19/2025 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index
- 5/19/2025 at 01:15pm EST: Fed’s Logan Moderates Panel at Atlanta Fed Conference