US Treasuries
- Tuesday’s range for UST 10y: 4.42% – 4.50%, closing at 4.50%
Bloomberg: Debt-Cap Anxiety Tracker: There’s a Premium for August T-Bills
Treasury bill investors are starting to maneuver around those securities maturing in August after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers that the US is likely to exhaust its borrowing authority that month if the federal debt ceiling isn’t raised or suspended by then. His warning has sent bill rates rising.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
One-day tick chart of the 30-year yield.
It is turning higher and now above yesterday’s highs. Usually, such a good CPI report would have been bullish for bonds. But, I think today’s report begs the question, Where are the tariffs-induced price rises?
The bond market’s looking past this number.
3-day tick chart of the 30-year yield.
Every major economic release since May 1st (including the FOMC meeting) has REDUCED the probability of a Fed cut (vertical dotted lines).
The market’s probability of the next cut above 50% is now September 17 (currently 60%). Less than two weeks ago, this probability was more than 100%. If this trend holds, the next cut will be pushed out to December very soon.
In Other News
WSJ: China Is Building Megaports in South America to Feed Its Need for Crops
China has reassured its citizens they would have enough to eat without U.S. crops. It will have to unclog Latin America’s largest port first.
Reuters: US farmers say Brazil still has edge in China’s soybean market despite trade truce
A surprising tariff pause between Beijing and Washington will not help U.S. farmers gain soy sales in China without additional concessions, producers said, because top-supplier Brazil still has a competitive price advantage.
gCaptain: Egypt’s Suez Canal Offers 15% Discount For Big Container Ships to Win Back Trade
Egypt’s Suez Canal will offer a 15% discount on transit fees for container ships with net tonnage of at least 130,000 metric tons, to encourage trade back now the security situation has eased and help ships offset rising insurance costs, its authorities said on Tuesday.
Arbor Data Science:
U.S. News: US Egg Prices Fell for the First Time in Months but Remain Near Record Highs
The average price for a dozen Grade A eggs dropped 12.7% to $5.12 in April, according to the Consumer Price Index. It was the first month-to-month decline in egg prices since October 2024.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 5/13/2025 at 06:00am EST: NFIB Small Business Optimism
- 5/13/2025 at 08:30am EST: Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY
- 5/13/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI MoM / CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM / CPI YoY
- 5/13/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY / CPI Index NSA / CPI Core Index SA
- 5/13/2025 at 08:30am EST: Real Avg Hourly Earnings YoY
- 5/14/2025 at 05:15am EST: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Central Bank Research
- 5/14/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 5/14/2025 at 09:10am EST: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 5/14/2025 at 05:40pm EST: Fed’s Daly Speaks in Fireside Chat
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM / Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas / Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM / PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand YoY / PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Control Group
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 5/15/2025 at 08:40am EST: Fed’s Powell Gives Opening Remarks at Framework Conference
- 5/15/2025 at 09:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM
- 5/15/2025 at 09:15am EST: Capacity Utilization / Manufacturing (SIC) Production
- 5/15/2025 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
- 5/15/2025 at 10:00am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 5/15/2025 at 02:05pm EST: Fed’s Barr Gives Opening Remarks
- 5/15/2025 – 5/16/2025: 2nd Thomas Laubach Research Conference
- 5/16/2025: Fed’s Barkin Gives Commencement Speech
- 5/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts / Housing Starts MoM
- 5/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Building Permits / Building Permits MoM
- 5/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM and YoY / Import Price Index ex Petroleum
- 5/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM and YoY
- 5/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 5/16/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
- 5/16/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 5/16/2025 at 04:00pm EST: Net Long-term TIC flows / Total Net TIC Flows
- 5/16/2025 at 09:40pm EST: Fed’s Daly Gives Commencement Address
- 5/16/2025: Fed’s Barkin Gives Commencement Address
- 5/18/2025 at 05:20pm EST: Fed’s Williams Gives Commencement Address
- 5/18/2025 – 5/21/2025: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s 2024 Financial Markets
- 5/19/2025 at 08:30am EST: Bostic Gives Opening Remarks
- 5/19/2025 at 08:45am EST: Fed’s Jefferson Gives Keynote, Bostic Moderates
- 5/19/2025 at 08:45am EST: Fed’s Williams Speaks in Moderated Discussion
- 5/19/2025 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index
- 5/19/2025 at 01:15pm EST: Fed’s Logan Moderates Panel at Atlanta Fed Conference
- 5/20/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity
- 5/20/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Bostic Gives Opening Remarks
- 5/20/2025 at 07:00pm EST: Fed’s Hammack, Daly Give Keynote, Bostic Moderates