End of Day Summary – 5/14/2025

US Treasuries

Bloomberg: US Firms Snap Up Short-Term Treasuries to Extend Duration of Cash Holdings 

US corporations with over a trillion in assets snapped up an unprecedented amount of short-term Treasuries when President Donald Trump announced a 90-day delay for most of his “Liberation Day” tariffs, according to Clearwater.

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Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

June 18 Fed cut (red) was priced out (less than 50%) on May 2nd. Payroll report. The July 30 Fed cut (green) was priced out (less than 50%) on Monday, May 12. China trade deal.

The September 17 rate cut (blue) barely hangs on at 52%.
The trend in the market continues to push rate cuts many months into the future.

The market seems to interpret nearly every major economic release covering April (starting with the April ISM report on May 1st) as reason to push cuts further into the future.

Notice how every release (vertical line) sees the probability of a cut jump, meaning it is less likely to see a Fed cut. Restated, the market has sees every economic report as “good” … giving the Fed another reason to “hold.”

CNBC: The wealthy can’t find enough people to manage their money. Here’s why 

Family offices are set to grow at a rapid pace as the ultra-rich look for personalized services to handle their wealth. But they are struggling to find money managers.  

As of last September, there were 8,030 family offices globally managing $3.1 trillion in assets, according to Deloitte’s recent statistics. By 2030, the number of family offices is expected to grow to 10,720 with $5.4 trillion in assets under their management.

SupplyChainBrain: The True Cost of Tariffs Becomes Clear at U.S. Ports 

Concerns over 145% tariffs against China initially had the Port of Los Angeles predicting a 35% year-over-year drop in import volumes by mid-May, as well as a 60% dip in traffic from China by the end of the summer. 

Arbor Data Science: Global Supply Chain Update: May 14, 2025

Reuters: Boeing deliveries nearly double in April

Boeing said on Tuesday it delivered 45 commercial jets in April, nearly twice the 24 airplanes it delivered during the same month a year ago.

Bloomberg: US Spring Homebuying Season Has Its Weakest Start in Five Years 

The crucial spring home-sales season in the US, barely off the runway, is already sputtering.

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Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak