US Treasuries
- Monday’s range for UST 10y: 4.46% – 4.56%, closing at 4.46%
- Long-dated Treasuries fell on Monday as investor attention turned to the US’ ballooning debt after Moody’s Ratings stripped the nation of its last top credit rating.
- USTs were up on the day
- Fed’s Bostic: flags inflation concerns, sees one cut this year
- Fed’s Jefferson: says Fed Policy is in a ‘very good place,’ and the Fed can be patient
- Fed’s Williams: says Fed needs to go beyond June, July to get clearer outlook
- Fed’s Logan: calls for strengthening rate -control tools
Bloomberg: Treasuries, Dollar Fall as Moody’s Sharpens Focus on US Debt
Long-dated Treasuries fell on Monday as investor attention turned to the US’ ballooning debt after Moody’s Ratings stripped the nation of its last top credit rating.
Axios: Buyers of U.S. bonds are getting nervous
There are emerging signs that global investors are losing patience with a U.S. government that shows no intention of narrowing deficits to more sustainable levels.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Intraday Commentary by Jim Bianco
The 30-year yield is now 5.03%—highest since October 2023.
If it goes nine basis points higher, it will be a new 18-year high.
June cut (red) priced out
July cut (green) priced out
Sept cut (blue) is effectively 50/50.
The trend is toward fewer, not more, cuts.
Effectively, the market is saying the next cut, IF IT HAPPENS AT ALL, is ~6 months away.
In Other News
Live Insurance News: When Insurance Costs Send US Homebuyers Packing
Rising Home Insurance Costs Are Shaking Up the Housing Market
CBS News: California approves State Farm’s 17% increase in home insurance premiums in wake of L.A. wildfires
Following a judge’s ruling Monday, State Farm customers in California are one step away from paying more on their homeowners insurance to alleviate what the company described as a “dire” financial situation in the wake of the Los Angeles-area wildfires.
Arbor Data Science: The Share of Purchasing Power for Homebuyers Declines
SupplyChainBrain: Shipping Giant CMA CGM Sees Cargo Jump After China Tariff Relief
Shipping giant CMA CGM SA is experiencing a sharp upswing in demand for freight transport out of China in a further signal that trade is rebounding after Beijing reached a temporary truce with the U.S. to lower tariffs.
ZeroHedge: Keep An Eye On Cocoa Prices
Cocoa futures surged as much as 7.9% on Friday to $11,068/ton in New York, approaching record levels once again, as mounting supply-side risks reignite upside price action.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 5/19/2025 at 08:30am EST: Bostic Gives Opening Remarks
- 5/19/2025 at 08:45am EST: Fed’s Jefferson Gives Keynote, Bostic Moderates
- 5/19/2025 at 08:45am EST: Fed’s Williams Speaks in Moderated Discussion
- 5/19/2025 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index
- 5/19/2025 at 01:15pm EST: Fed’s Logan Moderates Panel at Atlanta Fed Conference
- 5/20/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity
- 5/20/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Bostic Gives Opening Remarks
- 5/20/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Barkin Gives Speech at Richmond Fed Conference
- 5/20/2025 at 09:30am EST: Fed’s Collins Hosts Fed Listens Event in New Hampshire
- 5/20/2025 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Economy, Policy
- 5/20/2025 at 07:00pm EST: Fed’s Hammack, Daly Give Keynote, Bostic Moderates
- 5/21/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 5/21/2025 at 12:15pm EST: Fed’s Barkin, Bowman Participate in Fed Listens
- 5/22/2025 at 08:30am EST: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 5/22/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 5/22/2025 at 08:30am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI / Services PMI / Composite PMI
- 5/22/2025 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales / Existing Home Sales MoM
- 5/22/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
- 5/22/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed’s Williams Gives Keynote Remarks
- 5/23/2025 at 09:00am EST: Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
- 5/23/2025 at 09:35am EST: Fed’s Musalem, Schmid Speak in Fireside Chat
- 5/23/2025 at 10:00am EST: New Home Sales / New Home Sales MoM
- 5/23/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- 5/23/2025 at 12:00pm EST: Fed’s Cook Gives Speech on Financial Stability
- 5/23/2025: Building Permits / Building Permits MoM
- 5/23/2025 at 02:40pm EST: Fed’s Powell Gives Baccalaureate Remarks