US Treasuries
- Friday’s range for UST 10y: 4.19% – 4.33%, closing at 4.31%
Bloomberg: Bank Reserves at Fed Drop to $3 Trillion, Lowest Since Jan. 1
The US banking system’s reserves, a key factor in the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep shrinking its balance sheet, tumbled to the lowest in nearly four months.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
TIPS by Maturity
Data through 4/23/25
Week over Week Changes by Maturity
- < 2 years: $12.7 Bn on 4/16/25 to $13.1 Bn on 4/23/25 = $0.4 Bn
- 2 – 6 years: $7.8 Bn on 4/16/25 to $10.4 Bn on 4/23/25 = $2.6 Bn
- 6 – 11 years: $3.8 Bn on 4/16/25 to $3.2 Bn on 4/23/25 = ($0.6 Bn)
- > 11 years: $279 Mn on 4/16/25 to ($130) Mn on 4/16/25 = ($409 Mn)
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
10-year yield tick chart for the last two days. The green annotation shows its changed since the minute before the ISM report was released.
ISM and Payrolls are the first two monthly reports post-Liberation Day.
Is the bond market disappointed that the economy has not collapsed?
Update
In Other News
Newsweek: Florida Housing Market Mirroring 2008 Crash – Real Estate Analyst
During the pandemic, many people flocked to Florida, prompting a flurry of investment into building new homes. Now, that trend has reversed, with far fewer people moving in, and many leaving.
Contributing factors…
WINK: Rising COA fees, insurance rates reduce coastal condo demand
Soaring insurance rates, condominium association fees and new regulations have decreased demand and prices for condominiums along Florida’s coasts while the inland market remains stronger, a Florida Gulf Coast University professor said.
WSJ: Americans Won’t Splurge on Beer. How Great Breweries Are Keeping Prices Down Now.
Why do people pay vast sums for wine or whiskey, but balk at pricey beers? Meet the beer makers who are threading the needle between affordability and innovation.
Arbor Data Science: Tapping Into the Price of Alcohol With Potential Tariffs on the Horizon
Freightwaves: Layoffs hit freight-related companies across Southeast
Layoffs tied to the manufacturing, distribution and freight sectors have surged across the southeastern U.S. since the beginning of April.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 5/03/2025 at 12:50pm EST: Fed’s Cook Gives Commencement Address
- 5/05/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI & S&P Global US Composite PMI
- 5/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index / Prices Paid / New Orders/ Employment
- 5/06/2025 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance
- 5/07/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 5/07/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Rate Decision
- 5/07/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate
- 5/07/2025 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
- 5/08/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity
- 5/08/2025 at 08:30am EST: Unit Labor Costs
- 5/08/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 5/08/2025 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM / Wholesale Inventories MoM
- 5/08/2025 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
- 5/09/2025 at 06:15am EST: Fed’s Williams Gives Keynote Address in Reykjavik
- 5/09/2025 at 06:45am EST: Fed’s Barr Gives Speech on AI and the Labor Market
- 5/09/2025 at 08:30am EST: Fed’s Kugler Gives Speech on Maximum Employment
- 5/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Remarks at Fed Listens Event
- 5/09/2025 at 11:30am EST: Fed’s Williams, Waller on Panel at Hoover
- 5/09/2025 at 07:45pm EST: Fed’s Musalem, Hammack, Cook on Panel at Hoover