US Treasuries
- Thursday’s range for UST 10y: 4.54% – 4.62%, closing at 4.55%
- Today’s range for UST 30y: 5.05% – 5.15%, closing at 5.06%
- Fed Barkin: expects fed to cut in second half 2025 if tariffs drop
- Fed Williams: says optimal reserves depend on various factors
WSJ: The Bond Market is Waking Up to the Fiscal Mess in Washington
With the U.S. economy close to full capacity, more borrowing adds inflationary pressure, and so could lead the Fed to keep rates higher for longer.
Bloomberg: The Bond Vigilantes May Need a Lot of Rope
Pain at the Long End: The infamous bond vigilantes are starting to inflict some real pain, and they’re not coming for just the US. The suffering for holders of the longest-dated bonds is global, and the market’s informal enforcers have brought enough rope to ensnare them all.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
In Other News
OilPrice: OPEC+ Considers Another Big Oil Production Hike in July
The OPEC+ alliance is discussing the idea to make another big production increase in oil production for July, delegates from the group told Bloomberg News on Thursday.
Miami Herald: How South Florida is answering the affordable housing crisis
South Florida faces a stubborn affordability gap as new high-end apartment complexes like Soleste Hollywood Blvd and the redeveloped Hollywood Bread Building rise across the region.
Arbor Data Science: Condo Pain in Florida
The HR Digest: Walmart Layoffs Could Be a Signal For E-tailer’s Automated Future
On May 21, Walmart layoffs once again shook its corporate hallways as nearly 1,500 employees found themselves laid off. These Walmart job cuts in 2025 have sparked widespread discussion, with a strong focus on how AI is at the cost of streamlining.
Business Insider: ‘The worst I’ve ever seen’: the demise of affordable summer getaways
After years of being cooped up at home, travelers rushed into the world with a vengeance, sparking a major travel boom from 2022 to 2024. But years of rising prices and a slew of new tariff threats have cast uncertainty over the economy.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 5/23/2025 at 09:00am EST: Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
- 5/23/2025 at 09:35am EST: Fed’s Musalem, Schmid Speak in Fireside Chat
- 5/23/2025 at 10:00am EST: New Home Sales / New Home Sales MoM
- 5/23/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- 5/23/2025 at 12:00pm EST: Fed’s Cook Gives Speech on Financial Stability
- 5/23/2025: Building Permits / Building Permits MoM
- 5/25/2025 at 02:40pm EST: Fed’s Powell Gives Baccalaureate Remarks
- 5/27/2025 at 04:00am EST: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Bank of Japan Event
- 5/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
- 5/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 5/27/2025 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM / House Price Purchase Index QoQ
- 5/27/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA/ YoY NSA
- 5/27/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA
- 5/27/2025 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence /Present Situation / Expectations
- 5/27/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
- 5/27/2025 at 07:00pm EST: Fed’s Williams Speaks in Moderated Discussion in Tokyo
- 5/28/2025 at 04:00am EST: Fed’s Kashkari Participates in Moderated Q&A
- 5/28/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 5/28/2025 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index / Richmond Fed Business Conditions
- 5/28/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
- 5/28/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 5/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ / GDP Price Index
- 5/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Consumption
- 5/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index QoQ
- 5/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Contining Claims
- 5/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Fed’s Barkin Participates in Fireside Chat
- 5/29/2025 at 10:00am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM / YoY
- 5/29/2025 at 10:40pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Participates in Moderated Q&A
- 5/29/2025 at 04:00pm EST: Fed’s Daly Speaks in a Fireside Chat
- 5/29/2025 at 07:25pm EST: Fed’s Logan Gives Remarks, Speaks in Q&A