US Treasuries
- Today’s range for UST 10y: 4.435% – 4.50%, closing at 4.48%
- Today’s range for UST 30y: 4.94% – 5.005%, closing at 4.975%
- $44 billion UST 7y Note Auction Tomorrow
Bloomberg: Fed Well Positioned to Wait for Clarity on Outlook, Minutes Say
Policymakers largely agreed that heightened economic uncertainty and increased risks of both higher unemployment and inflation warranted no change in their wait-and-see policy stance, according to minutes of the May 6-7 meeting released Wednesday.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
Politico: France risks running out of cash for social spending, auditors say
In a report published Monday, the country’s highest audit authority said that social spending had spiraled “out of control.” The document also warned that a “liquidity crisis” could impact benefits payments as early as 2027 and affect France’s ability to borrow on financial markets.
Jim Bianco: This is evident in the bond market … French 10-year OATS have been widening vs German 10-year Bunds the last few years.
In Other News
QUARTZ: The luxury housing market is cracking – and tech-heavy cities are getting hit hardest
Luxury home sales fell 10% in April from a year earlier, according to new data from Redfin.
Spending from foreign visitors to the U.S. is poised to fall by $8.5 billion this year as negative perceptions tied to trade and immigration policy lead overseas tourists to look elsewhere, according to a research note published by Oxford Economics.
The Poultry Site: Brazil pushes for regional bird flu trade rules
Brazil is negotiating with the European Union and US to limit animal disease trade bans to affected regions, its chief veterinarian said on Tuesday, expressing strong confidence in reaching deals as bird flu disrupts Brazilian poultry exports, according to Reuters.
Arbor Data Science: Bird Flu Lands in Brazil, the Largest Exporter of Chicken
Business Today: Tech layoffs 2025: IBM lays off 8,000 employees as AI replaces HR Department
Despite the layoffs, IBM says its workforce has actually increased, as the company has hired more people across departments like software development, marketing and sales.
InsuranceNewsNet: The average auto insurance rate is going up 7.5% this year.
The hikes will add an average $182 to the average annual full-coverage premium nationwide raising it to $2,615 from $2,433.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 5/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ / GDP Price Index
- 5/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Consumption
- 5/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index QoQ
- 5/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Contining Claims
- 5/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Fed’s Barkin Participates in Fireside Chat
- 5/29/2025 at 10:00am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM / YoY
- 5/29/2025 at 10:40pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Participates in Moderated Q&A
- 5/29/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed’s Kugler Gives Opening Remarks
- 5/29/2025 at 04:00pm EST: Fed’s Daly Speaks in a Fireside Chat
- 5/29/2025 at 07:25pm EST: Fed’s Logan Gives Remarks, Speaks in Q&A
- 5/30/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income & Personal Spending & Real Personal Spending
- 5/30/2025 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM & PCE Price Index YoY
- 5/30/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index MoM & Core PCE Price Index YoY
- 5/30/2025 at 08:30am EST: Advance Goods Trade Balance & Wholesale Inventories MoM/Retail Inventories MoM
- 5/30/2025 at 09:45am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
- 5/30/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment & U. of Mich. Current Conditions & U. of Mich. Expectations
- 5/30/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation & U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 5/30/2025 at 04:45pm ET: Fed’s Daly Speaks in Panel Discussion
- 5/30/2025 at 08:30pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Participates on the Interview Show
- 6/01/2025 at 08:00pm EST: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 6/02/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
- 6/02/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Manufacturing & ISM Prices Paid & ISM New Orders
- 6/02/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Employment & Construction Spending MoM
- 6/02/2025 at 10:15am EST: Fed’s Logan Participates in Moderated Q&A
- 6/02/2025 at 12:45pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Participates in Moderated Q&A
- 6/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders / Factory Orders Ex Trans
- 6/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
- 6/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 6/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings / JOLTS Jobs Openings Rate
- 6/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Quits Level / JOLTS Quits Rate
- 6/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Layoffs Level / JOLTS Layoffs Rate
- 6/03/2025 at 12:45pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Participates in Moderated Q&A
- 6/03/2025: Wards Total Vehicle Sales
- 6/04/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 6/04/2025 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 6/04/2025 at 08:30am EST: Fed’s Bostic, Cook Moderate Fed Listens Event
- 6/04/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / S&P Global US Composite PMI
- 6/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index