US Treasuries
- Today’s range for UST 10y: 4.39% – 4.435%, closing at 4.42%
- Today’s range for UST 30y: 4.90% – 4.95%, closing at 4.935%
Bloomberg: US Treasuries Set for First Monthly Loss of 2025 on Deficit Woes
US Treasuries are on track to deliver their first monthly loss this year, buffeted by renewed tariff uncertainty and growing anxiety over mounting levels of government debt.
Bloomberg: Jamie Dimon Says Crack in the Bond Market Is “Going to Happen’
Jamie Dimon warned that a crack in the bond market is “going to happen” after the the US government and Federal Reserve “massively overdid” spending and quantitative easing.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
TIPS by Maturity
Data through 5/21/25
Week over Week Changes by Maturity
- < 2 years: $18.6 Bn on 5/14/25 to $18.7 Bn on 5/21/25 = $0.1 Bn
- 2 – 6 years: $6.0 Bn on 5/14/25 to $6.4 Bn on 5/21/25 = $0.4 Bn
- 6 – 11 years: $4.4 Bn on 5/14/25 to $4.6 Bn on 5/21/25 = $0.2 Bn
- > 11 years: ($582) Mn on 5/14/25 to ($538) Mn on 5/21/25 = $44 Mn
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
Prices rose a lot in May, thanks to tariffs.
And the CPI was zero in May and June 2004, so the base effect suggests that the year-over-year CPI, which is now 2.3%, is likely to increase significantly in the next month or so.
In Other News
OilPrice: Oil Prices on Course for Another Weekly Dip as OPEC+ Looks to Boost Production
OPEC+ is expected to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, contributing to a continued decline in crude oil prices.
KSHB: Beef demand, prices reach near record highs while cattle industry struggles
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a pound of ground beef reached a near record high, 50% higher than five years ago.
Arbor Data Science: A Steak in Beef Prices by Sam Rines
ABC: State Farm customers across California brace for insurance rate hike
Starting June 1, customer rates could go up by about 17% the next time they renew. State Farm is spreading out its losses over its customers, and it’s not just homeowners. Premiums for renters could increase by 15% and premiums landlords pay for rental properties could go up by 38%.
CNBC: The U.S. now has a third of the world’s millionaires and billionaires
America now has more than 6 million liquid millionaires, or those with investable assets of more than $1 million. That’s up 78% over the past decade, according to a report from Henley & Partners and New World Wealth.
EIA: Hybrid vehicle sales continue to rise as electric and plug-in vehicle shares remain flat
About 22% of light-duty vehicles sold in the first quarter of the year in the United States were hybrid, battery electric, or plug-in hybrid vehicles, up from about 18% in the first quarter of 2024.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 6/01/2025 at 08:00pm EST: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 6/02/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
- 6/02/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Manufacturing & ISM Prices Paid & ISM New Orders
- 6/02/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Employment & Construction Spending MoM
- 6/02/2025 at 10:15am EST: Fed’s Logan Participates in Moderated Q&A
- 6/02/2025 at 12:45pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Participates in Moderated Q&A
- 6/02/2025 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Powell Gives Opening Remarks
- 6/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders / Factory Orders Ex Trans
- 6/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
- 6/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 6/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings / JOLTS Jobs Openings Rate
- 6/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Quits Level / JOLTS Quits Rate
- 6/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Layoffs Level / JOLTS Layoffs Rate
- 6/03/2025 at 12:45pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Participates in Moderated Q&A
- 6/03/2025 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Cook Discusses Economic Outlook
- 6/03/2025 at 03:30pm EST: Fed’s Logan Gives Opening Remarks at Fed Listens
- 6/03/2025: Wards Total Vehicle Sales
- 6/04/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 6/04/2025 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 6/04/2025 at 08:30am EST: Fed’s Bostic, Cook Moderate Fed Listens Event
- 6/04/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / S&P Global US Composite PMI
- 6/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index
- 6/04/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Releases Beige Book
- 6/05/2025 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY
- 6/05/2025 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance
- 6/05/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity
- 6/05/2025 at 08:30am EST: Unit Labor Costs
- 6/05/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 6/05/2025 at 12:00pm EST: Fed’s Kugler Speaks at Economic Club of NY
- 6/05/2025 at 03:30pm EST: Fed’s Harker Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 6/06/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls/Change in Private Payrolls / Change in Manufact. Payrolls
- 6/06/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg / Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
- 6/06/2025 at 08:30am EST: Unemployment Rate
- 6/06/2025 at 08:30am EST: Labor Force Participation Rate / Underemployment Rate
- 6/06/2025 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM and YoY / Average Weekly Hours All Employees
- 6/06/2025 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit