US Treasuries
- Monday’s range for UST 10y: 4.285% – 4.37%, closing at 4.34%
Bloomberg: ‘Trump Put’ Will Limit Corporate Bond Spread Widening, BofA Says
Credit markets can expect support from the White House that will limit the extent of spread widening this year, according to Bank of America.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
Here are both ISM prices paid measures. Services in orange, also shown above, and manufacturing in blue.
Both clearly show prices going higher.
All this data has coincided with a 22 bps rise in the 10-year yield (green annotation).
Meanwhile the probability of a Fed cut continues to disappear.
Goldman Sachs and Barclays are leading the charge to push the rate cut to July. (Remember they were March, May, or this week, then June). Morgan Stanley is at zero rate cuts this year (I’m here too). Citi is at five rate cuts (or 125 bps).
If the Fed cannot find a reason to cut rates this week, or in June, what is going to change in July?
In Other News
Earnings Releases Continue this Week…
Farmers Review Africa: Brazil Overtakes U.S. in Soy Exports to China – What’s Next for Global Ag?
As U.S.-China trade tensions continue to simmer, Brazil is quietly stepping into a powerful new role—emerging as China’s preferred supplier of soybeans.
ConnectCRE: Family Offices Are Doubling Down on CRE in 2025
The landscape of private wealth is shifting, and CRE is increasingly becoming a focal point for family offices.
Forbes: Predictions For the Family Office Space in 2025
According to Deloitte Private, there were an estimated 8030 single-family offices globally in 2024, with projections suggesting growth to approximately 10,720 by 2030.
Elite Agent: Americans must now earn over US $114,00 to afford the median-priced home, Up 70% Since 2019
A household in the United States must now earn $114,000 annually to afford a median-priced home- marking a staggering 70.1% increase from six years ago, when the figure stood at $67,000.
Arbor Data Science:
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 5/06/2025 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance
- 5/07/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 5/07/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Rate Decision
- 5/07/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate
- 5/07/2025 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
- 5/08/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity
- 5/08/2025 at 08:30am EST: Unit Labor Costs
- 5/08/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 5/08/2025 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM / Wholesale Inventories MoM
- 5/08/2025 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
- 5/09/2025 at 06:15am EST: Fed’s Williams Gives Keynote Address in Reykjavik
- 5/09/2025 at 06:45am EST: Fed’s Barr Gives Speech on AI and the Labor Market
- 5/09/2025 at 08:30am EST: Fed’s Kugler Gives Speech on Maximum Employment
- 5/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Remarks at Fed Listens Event
- 5/09/2025 at 11:30am EST: Fed’s Williams, Waller on Panel at Hoover
- 5/09/2025 at 07:45pm EST: Fed’s Musalem, Hammack, Cook on Panel at Hoover
- 5/09/2025 at 10:25pm EST: Fed’s Kugler Speaks in Dublin
- 5/12/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Federal Budget Balance