US Treasuries
- Friday’s range for UST 10y: 4.34% – 4.395%, closing at 4.37%
- Fed’s Kugler: says Fed has time to be patient amid healthy U.S. economy
- Fed’s Williams: says crucial to anchor inflation expectations
- Fed’s Barkin: says not all firms can raise prices on tariffs
- Fed’s Bostic: says it is not prudent to adjust rates amid uncertainty
Bloomberg: Munis Set to Outperform Fixed Income in Summer Redemption Season
Investors are gearing up for a favorable time of year in the municipal-bond market as state and local government debt is poised to outperform other areas of fixed income over the next few months.
Bloomberg: Mortgage Bonds, Seen as Haven, Get Hit as Rates Took Wild Ride
Asset managers and strategists have for years touted mortgage bonds as a haven when the economy stumbles, but the debt has underwhelmed since President Donald Trump announced his tariff blitz.
WSJ: Warsh Says Fed’s Current Statements Imply Impaired Credibility
Kevin Warsh, who is considered a potential candidate to become Federal Reserve chair next year, suggested that the central bank has itself to blame for concerns that tariff increases might make it harder to control inflation.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Data through 4/30/25
Week over Week Changes by Maturity
- < 2 years: $13.1 Bn on 4/23/25 to $16.4 Bn on 4/30/25 = $3.3 Bn
- 2 – 6 years: $10.4 Bn on 4/23/25 to $6.8 Bn on 4/30/25 = ($3.6 Bn)
- 6 – 11 years: $3.2 Bn on 4/23/25 to $4.9 Bn on 4/30/25 = $1.7 Bn
- > 11 years: ($130) Mn on 4/23/25 to ($874) Mn on 4/30/25 = ($744 Mn)
In Other News
The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States slipped this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday, following a 3-rig decrease last week.
A Sign of the Times?
AutoBodyNews: Should Your Collision Shop Offer ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ Third Party Financing?
Third-party finance is having a moment.
Collision centers are increasingly considering and offering customers unconventional payment options from third-party private lenders, or a specific subset called “buy now, pay later” to maintain cash flow if volumes slow.
Arbor Data Science: The Rise of Monthly Car Payments and Delinquencies
Insurance Business: Late April storms cause hundreds of millions in insured losses across US – Aon
A series of severe storms that swept across the central and eastern United States in the final week of April is expected to result in insured losses amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars, according to a new report from Aon.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 5/11/2025: Fed’s Barkin Gives Commencement Speech
- 5/12/2025 at 10:25am EST: Fed’s Kugler Speaks in Dublin
- 5/12/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Federal Budget Balance
- 5/13/2025 at 06:00am EST: NFIB Small Business Optimism
- 5/13/2025 at 08:30am EST: Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY
- 5/13/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI MoM / CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM / CPI YoY
- 5/13/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY / CPI Index NSA / CPI Core Index SA
- 5/13/2025 at 08:30am EST: Real Avg Hourly Earnings YoY
- 5/14/2025 at 05:15am EST: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Central Bank Research
- 5/14/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 5/14/2025 at 09:10am EST: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 5/14/2025 at 05:40pm EST: Fed’s Daly Speaks in Fireside Chat
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM / Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas / Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM / PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand YoY / PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Control Group
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY
- 5/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 5/15/2025 at 08:40am EST: Fed’s Powell Gives Opening Remarks at Framework Conference
- 5/15/2025 at 09:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM
- 5/15/2025 at 09:15am EST: Capacity Utilization / Manufacturing (SIC) Production
- 5/15/2025 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
- 5/15/2025 at 10:00am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 5/15/2025 – 5/16/2025 EST: 2nd Thomas Laubach Research Conference
- 5/16/2025: Fed’s Barkin Gives Commencement Speech
- 5/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts / Housing Starts MoM
- 5/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Building Permits / Building Permits MoM
- 5/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM and YoY / Import Price Index ex Petroleum
- 5/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM and YoY
- 5/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 5/16/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
- 5/16/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 5/16/2025 at 04:00pm EST: Net Long-term TIC flows / Total Net TIC Flows
- 5/16/2025 at 09:40pm EST: Fed’s Daly Gives Commencement Address