US Treasuries
- Treasuries rallied after a weaker consumer confidence report and Powell’s comments
- Tuesday’s range for UST 2y: 3.80% – 3.86%, closing at 3.81%
- Tuesday’s range for UST 10y: 4.28% – 4.37%, closing at 4.29%
- Tuesday’s range for UST 30y: 4.82% – 4.92%, closing at 4.83%
- Fed’s Hammack: sees the need for ‘more watching’ before rate cuts
- Fed’s Powell: says higher inflation outlook keeping Fed on hold for now
- Fed’s Williams: says holding rates steady is ‘entirely appropriate’
- Fed’s Kashkari: says Fed needs more clarity on tariff impacts on prices
- Fed’s Collins: says modestly restrictive policy necessary
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
Where things stand, after Powell’s written testimony has been released and before the Q&A starts.
Trump appointees Waller and Bowman are suggesting a July cut. Powell is reiterating “no.” Will the July FOMC meeting see at least two dissenters?
The S&P 500 is now less than 1% from its February 19 all-time high of 6,144.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
In the News
realtor.com: Homeowners Face a Stiff Penalty for Staying in Their Homes Too Long – a Hidden Home Equity Tax
Business Insider: San Francisco was written off as dead. Now, real estate investors are flocking back.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 6/25/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 6/25/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Powell Testifies Before Senate Committee
- 6/25/2025 at 10:00am EST: New Home Sales / New Home Sales MoM
- 6/25/2025: Building Permits / Building Permits MoM
- 6/26/2025 at 07:30am EST: Fed’s Daly Appears on Bloomberg TV
- 6/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Advance Goods Trade Balance / Advance Goods Exports & Imports MoM
- 6/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM / Retail Inventories MoM
- 6/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ
- 6/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index QoQ
- 6/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 6/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Durable Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
- 6/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Durable Goods Ex Transportation
- 6/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
- 6/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 6/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg
- 6/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Continuing Claims
- 6/26/2025 at 08:45am EST: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on the Economy
- 6/26/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Hammack Gives Opening Remarks
- 6/26/2025 at 10:00am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM and YoY
- 6/26/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
- 6/26/2025 at 01:15pm EST: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Community Development
- 6/26/2025 at 07:00pm EST: Fed’s Kashkari in Q&A at Montana Chamber Event
- 6/27/2025 at 07:30am EST: Fed’s Williams Serves as Session Chair
- 6/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income / Personal Spending
- 6/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM and YoY
- 6/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index MoM and YoY
- 6/27/2025 at 09:00am EST: Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey
- 6/27/2025 at 09:15am EST: Fed’s Hammock, Cook Participate in Fed Listens
- 6/27/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions
- 6/27/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Expectations
- 6/27/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 6/27/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- 6/30/2025 at 09:45am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
- 6/30/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on the Economic Outlook
- 6/30/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
- 6/30/2025 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks in a Moderated Discussion
- 7/01/2025 at 09:30am EST: ECB Lagarade, Fed Powell, BOE Bailey, BOJ Ueda, BOK Rhee
- 7/01/2025 at 09:30am EST: Powell Participates in Panel with Lagarde, Bailey, Ueda
- 7/01/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing
- 7/01/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid / New Orders / Employment
- 7/01/2025 at 10:00am EST: Construction Spending MoM
- 7/01/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings / Rate
- 7/01/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Quits Level / Rate
- 7/01/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Layoffs Level / Rate
- 7/01/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
- 7/01/2025: Wards Total Vehicle Sales