US Treasuries
- Thursday’s range for UST 10y: 4.33% – 4.37%, closing at 4.345%
- Thursday’s range for UST 30y: 4.855% – 4.895%, closing at 4.86%
- Fed’s Musalem: says it’s too soon to know tariffs’ impact on Inflation
- Fed’s Waller: backs balance sheet runoff and a shift in composition
- Fed’s Daly: sees two cuts in 2025 as likely outcome
Bloomberg: Fed Seeks Input on Plan to Revise Bank Supervisory Ratings
Bloomberg: Pence Says Trump Has Right to Share Views on Powell, Fed Policy
Bloomberg: Treasuries Have a Much Bigger Problem Than Tariffs: MacroScope
Conference Call Replay, Featuring Jim Bianco
Summary Points
- The perception of the Fed being political is not new, but social media has made it more noticeable, with past presidents also complaining about the Fed, similar to Trump.
- Collapsing population growth is a major issue for the labor force due to net negative immigration, which could lead to a significant decrease in the number of jobs needed to cover population growth and workforce entry.
- Despite talks of a recession, home prices are at all-time highs due to restrictive zoning and building laws limiting supply.
- Trump’s desire for a 1% funds rate is criticized as a misunderstanding of how interest rates work, indicating that an incorrect interest rate policy would lead to negative reactions from the yield curve.
- The impact of tariffs on inflation will become clearer with upcoming CPI data, anticipated to show whether tariffs have led to increased inflation.
Click Here to Listen to the Replay
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
In the News
Federal Reserve Bank of New York: The Rise in Deposit Flightiness and Its Implications for Financial Stability
Freightwaves: Tariff pauses ‘unlikely’ to halt tumbling trans-Pacific rates: Freightos
S&P Global: US corporate bankruptcy filings lean toward reorganization over liquidation
Oil Price: OPEC Says Global Oil Consumption Will Hit 123 Million bpd by 2050
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 7/11/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Federal Budget Balance
- 7/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY
- 7/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 7/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI MoM / CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
- 7/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI YoY / CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
- 7/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI Index NSA / CPI Core Index SA
- 7/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Real Avg Hourly Earnings YoY
- 7/15/2025 at 02:45pm EST: Fed’s Collins will deliver closing keynote remarks
- 7/15/2025 at 06:45pm EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks on the Economy
- 7/15/2025: Fed’s Barkin gives speech in Baltimore
- 7/16/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 7/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM / PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
- 7/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM
- 7/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand YoY / PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
- 7/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: New York Services Business Activity
- 7/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YOY
- 7/16/2025 at 09:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM / Capacity Utilization
- 7/16/2025 at 09:15am EST: Manufacturing (SIC) Production
- 7/16/2025 at 09:15am EST: Fed’s Hammack speaks on community development
- 7/16/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Releases Beige Book
- 7/16/2025 at 05:30pm EST: Fed’s Williams speaks on economic outlook, policy
- 7/16/2025: Fed’s Barkin gives speech in Westminister, MD
- 7/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM / Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas
- 7/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM / Retail Sales Control Group
- 7/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM / Import Price Index ex Petroleum
- 7/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index YoY
- 7/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM / Export Price Index YoY
- 7/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg
- 7/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Continuing Claims
- 7/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- 7/17/2025 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
- 7/17/2025 at 10:00am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 7/17/2025 at 04:00pm EST: Net Long-term TIC Flows / Total Net TIC Flows