US Treasuries
- Friday’s range for UST 10y: 4.41% – 4.445%, closing at 4.43%
- UST 10y range for the week: 4.39% – 4.49%
- Friday’s range for UST 30y: 4.98% – 5.01%, closing at 4.995%
- UST 30y range for the week: 4.93% – 5.07%
- Fed’s Waller: says private-sector job worries drive rate-cut call
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Jim Bianco joins BloombergTV
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
Waller this morning: “I haven’t seen much in the way of market expectations being unanchored in any ways you want to measure. Now in the near term of course they might go up, because you would see inflation [from tariffs] but in the longer-term ones, I’m not, you’re not seeing it.”
First, the short-term measures are going up … Here are the Inflation Swaps. they are breaking out to 2+ year highs. Again, Waller dismisses this because it is tariff-driven … Transitory.
The 5-year Inflation Swap is going up. Is this long-term?
How about a 10-year Inflation Swap? It’s going straight up and at more than a 1-year high.
The above shows that the 1-year to 10-year inflation swap is increasing stead and all at least a 1-year high. So, what is Waller talking about when he said: “I haven’t seen much in the way of market expectations being unanchored in any ways you want to measure.”
The 5-year-5-year forward inflation swap is not showing an extreme reading like above.
Therefore, disregard the 1- to 10-year measures that indicate inflation might be unanchored; instead, focus on the derivative of the 5-year/5-year inflation measure that might suggest it is not.
Therefore, Waller is basing his opinion that inflation is “anchored” on a single measure. Although there are 10+ that say the opposite.
In the News
Successful Farming: Coke’s Shift to Cane Sugar Would Be Expensive, Hurt U.S. Farmer
CNBC: Chevron defeats Exxon in dispute over Guyana oil assets, clearing path for Hess acquisition
The Economic Times: China quietly issues 2025 rare earth quotas, sources say
Bloomberg: Crypto Market Value Tops $4 Trillion as Stablecoin Bill Passes
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 7/19/2025 – 7/31/2025: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
- 7/21/2025 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index
- 7/22/2025 at 08:30am EST: Fed’s Powell Gives Welcome Remarks at Regulatory Conference
- 7/22/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity
- 7/22/2025 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index
- 7/22/2025 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Business Conditions
- 7/23/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 7/23/2025 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales / Existing Home Sales MoM
- 7/24/2025 at 08:30am EST: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 7/24/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 7/24/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI / Global US Services PMI / Composite PMI
- 7/24/2025 at 10:00am EST: New Home Sales / New Home Sales MoM
- 7/24/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
- 7/24/2025: Building Permits / Building Permits MoM
- 7/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
- 7/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 7/25/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- 7/25/2025 at 11:00am EST: Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey