US Treasuries
- Wednesday’s range for UST 10y: 4.24% – 4.305%, closing at 4.285%
- Wednesday’s range for UST 30y: 4.77% – 4.845%, closing at 4.815%
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
Massive miss … *ADP US JUNE PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT FALLS 33K; EST. +98K
Remember, ADP is a poor indicator of tomorrow’s payroll report. Specifically, it has a zero correlation.
To illustrate how all developed country sovereign bonds tend to move in tandem…3-day tick chart of the 10-year UK Gilt. Annotation (red): This yield is up ~21 bps in the last 24 hours.
3-day tick chart of the 10-Year US Yield. Annotation (red): This yield is up ~11 bps in the last 24 hours.
3-day tick chart of the 10-Year Bund Yield. Annotation (red): This yield is up ~13 bps in the last 24 hours.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
In the News
Bloomberg: Microsoft Cuts 9,000 Workers in Second Wave of Major Layoffs
Freightwaves: Uber Freight Faces $9M it in Del Monte’s $1B Bankruptcy
SupplyChainBrain: Survey: Surge in Freight Demand Could Stretch Companies to “Breaking Point”
Technology.org: Google Data Centers Doubled Energy Consumption in Just 4 Years as AI Power Demands Surge
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 7/03/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 7/03/2025 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY
- 7/03/2025 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 7/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance
- 7/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm / Private / Manufact. Payrolls
- 7/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg
- 7/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
- 7/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Unemployment Rate
- 7/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Labor Force Participation Rate / Underemployment Rate
- 7/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM / YoY
- 7/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Average Weekly Hours All Employees
- 7/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg
- 7/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Continuing Claims
- 7/03/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services / Composite PMI
- 7/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders / Factory Orders Ex Trans
- 7/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index / Prices Paid / New Orders / Employment
- 7/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Ex Transportation
- 7/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
- 7/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 7/03/2025 at 11:00am EST: Fed’s Bostic Gives Speech on Monetary Policy
- 7/08/2025 at 06:00am EST: NFIB Small Business Optimism
- 7/08/2025 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
- 7/08/2025 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
- 7/09/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 7/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM / Wholesale Inventories MoM
- 7/09/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Meeting Minutes