US Treasuries
- Monday’s range for UST 2y: 3.90% – 3.935%, closing at 3.93%
- Monday’s range for UST 10y: 4.365% – 4.415%, closing at 4.41%
- Monday’s range for UST 30y: 4.90% – 4.96%, closing at 4.96%
Bloomberg: US Ramps Up Quarterly Borrowing to $1 Trillion in Cash Rebuild
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
So …TGA to $850B (as expected), meaning ~$400B in borrowing to refill $554B financing estimate last quarter is now $590B. That is how much, and it’s a little more than we expected.
However, at 7:30 Eastern on Wednesday morning, we get the second part of the QRA, which is the mix of bills, notes, bonds, and TIPS to raise that $1.01 trillion.
Trump is said to stop issuing 10-year notes and 30-year bonds and pile it all into bills. Then, when he gets his Fed chairman to cut rates to 1%, and all of this gets refinanced at a lower rate, saving hundreds of billions in interest costs.
I think this is a disaster, as I explained above (and leads WWR today). My guess is that Besant understands and agrees.
Does Bessent talk Trump off the ledge, and we get something more reasonable?
Or do we get a radical remix in the borrowing?
Or, is it just another one of those “Trump says things” instances where nothing gets followed through on?
Working against the idea that it is “Trump just says things” is that he constantly posts about firing Powell, lowering rates, and saving on interest costs.
So this was not just a passing statement on Trump’s part, but part of a subject he constantly comes back to.
Next Conference Call this Friday, August 1st, featuring Jim Bianco
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
In Other News
Notable Earnings Releases for tomorrow (Tuesday, 7/29/25), are listed at the bottom of this report
yahoo!finance: Health insurance companies have a problem – people are using their plans more
eia: Onshore crude oil production on federal lands has increased in recent years
Forbes: U.S. Public Pensions Adapt To Change, And It’s Paying Off
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 7/19/2025 – 7/31/2025: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
- 7/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Advance Goods Trade Balance
- 7/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Advance Goods Imports MoM SA / Exports MoM SA
- 7/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM
- 7/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Inventories MoM
- 7/29/2025 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM
- 7/29/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA / YoY NSA
- 7/29/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA
- 7/29/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings / JOLTS Job Openings Rate
- 7/29/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Quits Level / JOLTS Quits Rate
- 7/29/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Layoffs Level / JOLTS Layoffs Rate
- 7/29/2025 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence / Conf. Board Present Situation
- 7/29/2025 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Expectations
- 7/29/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
- 7/30/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 7/30/2025 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 7/30/2025 at 08:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ
- 7/30/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Consumption
- 7/30/2025 at 08:30am EST: GDP Price Index / Core PCE Price Index QoQ
- 7/30/2025 at 08:30am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM / Pending Home Sales NSA YoY
- 7/30/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Rate Decision
- 7/30/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Interest on Reserve Balances
- 7/30/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Reverse Repo Rate
- 7/31/2025 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY
- 7/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income / Personal Spending / Real Personal Spending
- 7/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM / YoY
- 7/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index MoM / YoY
- 7/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: Employment Cost Index
- 7/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 7/31/2025 at 09:45am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
- 8/01/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Change in Private Payrolls
- 8/01/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Manufact. Payrolls
- 8/01/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg / Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
- 8/01/2025 at 08:30am EST: Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
- 8/01/2025 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM / YoY / Avg Weekly Hours All Employees
- 8/01/2025 at 08:30am EST: Unemployment Rate
- 8/01/2025 at 08:30am EST: Labor Force Participation Rate / Underemployment Rate
- 8/01/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
- 8/01/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid / New Orders / Employment
- 8/01/2025 at 10:00am EST: Construction Spending MoM
- 8/01/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
- 8/01/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 8/01/2025: Wards Total Vehicle Sales
- 8/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders / Ex Trans
- 8/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Ex Transportation
- 8/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
- 8/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
Notable Earnings Reports
Tuesday, 7/29/25, Before the Open:
Tuesday, 7/29/25, After the Close:
