End of Day Summary – 7/30/2025 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

US Treasuries

Wednesday’s range for UST 2y: 3.86% – 3.935%, closing at 3.935%
Wednesday’s range for UST 10y: 4.31% – 4.38%, closing at 4.375%
Wednesday’s range for UST 30y: 4.85% – 4.91%, closing at 4.91%

Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco

There’s an argument circulating that the dissenters are leading the way, suggesting that the Fed will eventually cut rates. Neil Dutta is making that case over at Renaissance Macro.

The June dots indicated that seven FOMC members did not believe they needed to cut rates this year (red box). If we’re now in an era of dissent, then a rate cut in September should attract a number of dissenting voices against the cut.

Powell’s hawkish comments on inflation, while talking about labor market in balance, has stocks pushing the lows of the day and now negative on the day, and bond yields turning around and pushing the highs of the day. Do you have concerns?

10-year yield

Two year yield is going straight up since Powell started talking, suggesting the market is deflating the probabilities of a September cut.

Powell is killing the odds of a September rate cut period now under 50%.

Jim Bianco joins Bloomberg TV: This is going to be the last quiet meeting, September is going to be a much different ballgame

Next Conference Call this Friday, August 1st, featuring Jim Bianco

Click Here to Register

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

In Other News

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BorderReport: Screwworm closer to US border, threating Texas cattle industry

Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak

7/31/2025 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY
7/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income / Personal Spending / Real Personal Spending
7/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM / YoY
7/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index MoM / YoY
7/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: Employment Cost Index
7/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
7/31/2025 at 09:45am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
8/01/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Change in Private Payrolls
8/01/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Manufact. Payrolls
8/01/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg / Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
8/01/2025 at 08:30am EST: Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
8/01/2025 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM / YoY / Avg Weekly Hours All Employees
8/01/2025 at 08:30am EST: Unemployment Rate
8/01/2025 at 08:30am EST: Labor Force Participation Rate / Underemployment Rate
8/01/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
8/01/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid / New Orders / Employment
8/01/2025 at 10:00am EST: Construction Spending MoM
8/01/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
8/01/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5-10 Yr Inflation
8/01/2025: Wards Total Vehicle Sales
8/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders / Ex Trans
8/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Ex Transportation
8/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
8/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
8/05/2025 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance
8/05/2025 at 08:30am EST: Exports MoM / Imports MoM
8/05/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / Composite PMI
8/05/2025 at 09:45am EST: ISM Services Index / Prices Paid
8/05/2025 at 09:45am EST: ISM Services New Orders/ Employment
8/06/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications