US Treasuries
- Treasuries surged (led by short-end) as slower job growth fueled bets for Fed rate cuts
- Friday’s range for UST 2y: 3.695% – 3.95%, closing at 3.70%
- Friday’s range for UST 10y: 4.21% – 4.405%, closing at 4.215%
- Friday’s range for UST 30y: 4.80% – 4.94%, closing at 4.805%
- Fed’s Waller and Bowman: cite labor market for dissents
- Fed’s Hammack: says job market is healthy despite ‘disappointing’ report
Bloomberg: Wall Street’s Months-Long Truce With Washington Is Shattering
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
The two-month revision is the third-largest downward adjustment in the history of this data. The other two were financial crisis.
Conference Call Replay featuring Jim Bianco
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
TIPS by Maturity: (data through 7/23/25)
Week over Week Changes by Maturity
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< 2 years: $19.5 Bn on 7/16/25 to $19.7 Bn on 7/23/25 = $0.2 Bn
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2 – 6 years: $5.2 Bn on 7/16/25 to $4.7 Bn on 7/23/25 = ($0.5 Bn)
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6 – 11 years: $1.5 Bn on 7/16/25 to $1.3 Bn on 7/23/25 = ($0.2 Bn)
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> 11 years: ($156) Mn on 7/16/25 to $174 Mn on 7/23/25 = $300 Mn
In Other News
Bloomberg: US INSIGHT: First-Time Job Seekers Are Struggling
CNBC: Millions of student loan borrowers could see their debt grow as interest-free break ends
SupplyChainBrain: Procter & Gamble Plans Price Hikes to Offset $1B in Tariff Losses
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 8/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders / Ex Trans
- 8/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Ex Transportation
- 8/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
- 8/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 8/05/2025 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance
- 8/05/2025 at 08:30am EST: Exports MoM / Imports MoM
- 8/05/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / Composite PMI
- 8/05/2025 at 09:45am EST: ISM Services Index / Prices Paid
- 8/05/2025 at 09:45am EST: ISM Services New Orders/ Employment
- 8/06/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 8/06/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed’s Cook and Collins Participate in Panel Event
- 8/07/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity
- 8/07/2025 at 08:30am EST: Unit Labor Costs
- 8/07/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 8/07/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Monetary Policy
- 8/07/2025 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM / Wholesale Inventories MoM
- 8/07/2025 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
- 8/07/2025 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
- 8/08/2025 at 10:20am EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Banking and Credit