US Treasuries
- Tuesday’s range for UST 2y: 3.70% – 3.77%, closing at 3.725%
- Tuesday’s range for UST 10y: 4.24% – 4.315%, closing at 4.29%
- Tuesday’s range for UST 30y: 4.82% – 4.90%, closing at 4.88%
- Fed’s Barkin: says balance between jobs, inflation risks unclear
- Fed’s Schmid: says policy stance is still appropriate for the time being
Bloomberg: Treasuries Go 24-7 as Repo Trade Hits Blockchain on a Saturday
CNBC: Former St. Louis Fed Pres. Jim Bullard: The Fed could cut 100 basis points in the next year
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
Core inflation is 3.1%. Over the last 3 months, it is up 0.3%. The last time the Fed CUT when Core was over 3% AND rising by at least 0.3% over the previous 3 months was … 1991!
(Last year, Core when the Fed cut core was over 3% but its 3-month change was zero to falling.) So I agree with Ben Hunt, the 2% target is officially dead.
Yields at a new high … My take is we had a short put on hoping for a hit CPI number that covered in the 30 minutes after the release. Now that it is over, the larger trend is asserting itself.
Arbor Data Science
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
In Other News
WisdomTree: Time to Find Out: What Tariffs, Earnings and the Fed Are Really Telling Us (featuring Sam Rines, frequent contributor to Arbor Data Science)
Fast Company: Underwater mortgages are climbing in Florida and Texas housing markets
Axios: These industries are most reliant on noncitizen workers
USA Today: Half of farmers are over retirement age. Is our food system at risk?
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 8/13/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 8/13/2025 at 08:00am EST: Fed’s Barkin Repeats Remarks on Economy
- 8/13/2025 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Monetary Policy Luncheon
- 8/13/2025 at 01:30pm EST: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on the Economic Outlook
- 8/14/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM / PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
- 8/14/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM / PPI Final Demand YoY
- 8/14/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY / PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY
- 8/14/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg
- 8/14/2025 at 08:30am EST: Continuing Claims
- 8/14/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed’s Barkin speaks in a NABE Webinar
- 8/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM
- 8/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 8/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM / Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas
- 8/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Control Group
- 8/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM / Import Price Index ex Petroleum
- 8/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index YoY
- 8/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM / Export Price Index YoY
- 8/15/2025 at 09:15am EST: Manufacturing (SIC) Production
- 8/15/2025 at 09:15am EST: Capacity Utilization
- 8/15/2025 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
- 8/15/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
- 8/15/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 8/15/2025 at 04:00pm EST: Net Long-term TIC flows / Total Net TIC flows
- 8/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 8/18/2025 at 10:00am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 8/19/2025 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts / Building Permits
- 8/19/2025 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts MoM / Building Permits MoM