US Treasuries
- Friday’s range for UST 10y: 4.265% – 4.33%, closing at 4.32%
- UST 10y Note Range for the Week: 4.195% – 4.33%
- Friday’s range for UST 30y: 4.85% – 4.93%, closing at 4.92%
- UST 30y Bond Range for the Week: 4.79% – 4.93%
- Fed’s Goolsbee: says he wants to see more positive inflation data
Bloomberg: Sumerlin Says Fed Would Need to Stop Cuts If 10-Year Yields Rose
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
Remind me again why the Fed is going to cut rates next month?
The July payroll report is looking like an outlier. Very little supports it, and a lot more data suggest the economy is much better.
The argument for cutting rates more and more looks like an emotional reaction to one report … the exact thing the Fed constantly says they will never do.
93% probability of a cut next month. How are long yields reacting? The 30-year yield is now HIGHER than it was before the July Payroll report on August 1.
The 10-year yield is a whole seven basis points lower (under the red line).
One of the biggest monthly increases in the Michigan inflation survey on record.
TIPS by Maturity: (data through 8/06/25)
Week over Week Changes by Maturity
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< 2 years: $20.1 Bn on 7/30/25 to $23.2 Bn on 8/06/25 = $3.1 Bn
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2 – 6 years: $3.8 Bn on 7/30/25 to $3.5 Bn on 8/06/25 = ($0.3 Bn)
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6 – 11 years: $3.6 Bn on 7/30/25 to $3.7 Bn on 8/06/25 = $0.1 Bn
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> 11 years: $223 Mn on 7/30/25 to $300 Mn on 8/06/25 = $77 Mn
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
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Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 8/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 8/18/2025 at 10:00am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 8/19/2025 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts / Building Permits
- 8/19/2025 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts MoM / Building Permits MoM
- 8/20/2025 at 08:30am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 8/20/2025 at 11:00am EST: Fed’s Waller Speaks at Wyoming Blockchain Symposium
- 8/20/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 8/20/2025 at 03:00pm EST: Fed’s Bostic in Moderated Conversation Economic Outlook
- 8/21/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 8/21/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- 8/21/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing /Services PMI / Composite PMI
- 8/21/2025 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index
- 8/21/2025 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales / MoM
- 8/22/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Powell Speaks on Economic Outlook at Jackson Hole