US Treasuries
- Treasuries rallied (led by the front end) as Fed’s Powell signals rate cuts
- Friday’s range for UST 10y: 4.24% – 4.335%, closing at 4.255%
- Weekly range for UST 10y: 4.24% – 4.35%
- Friday’s range for UST 30y: 4.86% – 4.93%, closing at 4.88%
- Weekly range for UST 30y: 4.86% – 4.95%
- Fed’s Goolsbee: says he hopes dangerous inflation data was a blip
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Jim Bianco joins Charles Payne
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco:
30-year yield with its trend highlighted since early May. It’s dead sideways for months.
And look at the last bar; today, it’s right in the middle of the range. Long rates are not responding to a Fed rate cut or the slowdown in the labor market that Powell outlined. It’s going sideways.
I believe it is one bad inflation report away from launching well above 5%.
TIPS by Maturity: (data through 8/13/25)
Week over Week Changes by Maturity
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< 2 years: $23.2 Bn on 8/06/25 to $24.5 Bn on 8/13/25 = $1.3 Bn
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2 – 6 years: $3.5 Bn on 8/06/25 to $4.4 Bn on 8/13/25 = $0.9 Bn
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6 – 11 years: $3.7 Bn on 8/06/25 to $2.7 Bn on 8/13/25 = ($1.0 Bn)
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> 11 years: $300 Mn on 8/06/25 to $133 Mn on 8/13/25 = ($167 Mn)
In Other News
Multi-Housing News: Commercial/Multifamily Borrowing Increased 66 Percent in Q2
Supply Chain Brain: Boeing in Talks to Sell as Many as 500 Planes to China
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 8/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 8/25/2025 at 10:00am EST: New Home Sales / New Home Sales MoM
- 8/25/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
- 8/25/2025: Building Permits / Building Permits MoM
- 8/25/2025 at 03:15pm EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Bank of Mexico Centennial Conference
- 8/25/2025 at 07:15pm EST: Fed’s Williams Gives Keynote Remarks
- 8/26/2025 at 00:01am EST: Fed’s Barkin Repeats Remarks on the Economy
- 8/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity
- 8/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Durable Good Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
- 8/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Cap Good Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Good Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 8/26/2025 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index Mom
- 8/26/2025 at 09:00am EST: House Price Purchase Index QoQ
- 8/26/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P CoreLogic CS 20 CityMoM SA / YoY/NSA / US HPI YoY NSA
- 8/26/2025 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed. Manufact. Index / Richmond Fed Business Conditions
- 8/26/2025 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence / Present Situation / Expectations
- 8/26/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
- 8/27/2025 at 00:01am EST: Fed’s Barkin Repeats Remarks on the Economy
- 8/27/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 8/28/2025 at 08:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ
- 8/28/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Consumption
- 8/28/2025 at 08:30am EST: GDP Price Index / Core PCE price Index QoQ
- 8/28/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg
- 8/28/2025 at 08:30am EST: Continuing Claims
- 8/28/2025 at 10:00am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM / Pending Homes Sales NSA YoY
- 8/28/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
- 8/28/2025 at 06:00pm EST: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Monetary Policy
- 8/29/2025 at 06:00am EST: Bloomberg August U.S. Economic Survey
- 8/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income & Personal Spending & Real Personal Spending
- 8/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM & PE Price Index YoY
- 8/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index MoM & Core PCE Price Index YoY
- 8/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Advance Goods Trade Balance & Advance Goods Imports MoM SA & Advance Goods Exports MoM SA
- 8/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM & Retail inventories MoM
- 8/29/2025 at 09:45am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
- 8/29/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment & U. of Mich. Current Conditions
- 8/29/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Expectations & U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation & U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 8/29/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity