US Treasuries
- Thursday’s range for UST 10y: 4.20% – 4.24%, closing at 4.205%
- Thursday’s range for UST 30y: 4.87% – 4.915%, closing at 4.875%
Bloomberg: One Way the Fed Can Bolster Its Defenses
SupplyChainBrain: Report: Supply Chain Soon to Exceed Inflation by 7%
Jim Bianco Intraday Commentary
Weekly claims came out, last week was revised down and this week fell from the revision of last week.
So where’s this labor market weakness that demands a Fed rate cut?
Even continuing claims, which had primarily been rising for three years, essentially stopped increasing around June (see the labels).
I repeat, where is this weakness that demands a rate cut?
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
In Other News
Data picks up tomorrow, but there is growing awareness as well on the anticipated heavy IG issuance next week, typical of the first week post-Labor Day, as shown in the 2024 data below:
401(k) beneficiaries… Tier1 Alpha on X:
“No matter what happens today, 70 million working Americans will still be buying $NVDA every month, whether they realize it or not.”
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 8/29/2025 at 06:00am EST: Bloomberg August U.S. Economic Survey
- 8/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income & Personal Spending & Real Personal Spending
- 8/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM & PE Price Index YoY
- 8/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index MoM & Core PCE Price Index YoY
- 8/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Advance Goods Trade Balance & Advance Goods Imports MoM SA
- 8/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Advance Goods Exports MoM SA
- 8/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM & Retail inventories MoM
- 8/29/2025 at 09:45am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
- 8/29/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment & U. of Mich. Current Conditions
- 8/29/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Expectations & U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation & U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 8/29/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- 9/02/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
- 9/02/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Manufacturing & ISM Prices Paid
- 9/02/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM New Orders & ISM Employment & Construction Spending MoM
- 9/03/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 9/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings / JOLTS Job Opening Rate
- 9/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Quits Level / JOLTS Quits Rate
- 9/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Layoffs Level / JOLTS Layoffs Rate
- 9/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders / Factory Orders Ex Trans
- 9/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durable Ex Trans
- 9/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Es Air / Cap Goods Orders Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 9/03/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Economy and Policy at Peterson
- 9/03/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Releases Beige Book
- 9/03/2025: Wards Total Vehicle Sales
- 9/04/2025 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY
- 9/04/2025 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 9/04/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity
- 9/04/2025 at 08:30am EST: Unit Labor Costs
- 9/04/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 9/04/2025 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance
- 9/04/2025 at 08:30am EST: Exports MoM / Imports MoM
- 9/04/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / S&P Global US Composite PMI
- 9/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index/Prices Paid/New Orders/Employment
- 9/04/2025 at 11:30am EST: Fed’s Williams Speaks on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
- 9/04/2025 at 07:00pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Appears in a Modersted Q&A