US Treasuries
- Friday’s range for UST 10y: 4.205% – 4.24%, closing at 4.225%
- Weekly range for UST 10y: 4.20% – 4.31%
- Friday’s range for UST 30y: 4.875% – 4.93%, closing at 4.915%
- Weekly range for UST 30y: 4.87% -4.96%
In the News
Redfin News: Las Vegas Housing Supply Rises 31% As Demand Stumbles, Pushing Sale Prices Down Slightly
Arbor Data Science: Gas Prices…Your Labor Day Racing Form
Jim Bianco Intraday Commentary
Federal Reserve: Speech by Governor Waller on the Economic Outlook
I have two problems with his argument. The first argument is that he’s treating tariffs as if they’re a one-time event, they get passed through, and that’s the end of it.
See the red line. This comes from the Yale Budget Lab and represents their estimate of the average tariff rate. This thing moves up and down faster than the stock market. It’s hardly a one-time event.
Second, his analogy comparing it to sales tax, and demanding a hike because the sales tax increases, is entirely wrong. People do this all the time!
It’s called getting paid for the area you live in. That’s why you get more money to work in San Francisco than you do to work in Arkansas for the same job. Part of the cost of living is sales tax. And now, with remote work, we’ve seen people moving out of high sales tax states to low sales tax states. So they’re doing exactly what he said they weren’t doing, and interestingly, he told it in Miami, which is where everybody’s going because sales taxes in New York, California, and everywhere else are too high
He could not be more wrong on this subject.
To be clear, he’s right, people don’t go in and demand a raise because the sales tax was hiked. They go in and demand a raise because you’re making them live or work in a high-cost area like San Francisco or New York City. A significant portion of the cost of living in those areas is the sales tax.
There is no low-cost-of-living area of the country that also has a high sales tax.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 9/02/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
- 9/02/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Manufacturing & ISM Prices Paid
- 9/02/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM New Orders & ISM Employment & Construction Spending MoM
- 9/03/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 9/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings / JOLTS Job Opening Rate
- 9/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Quits Level / JOLTS Quits Rate
- 9/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Layoffs Level / JOLTS Layoffs Rate
- 9/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders / Factory Orders Ex Trans
- 9/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durable Ex Trans
- 9/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Es Air / Cap Goods Orders Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 9/03/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Economy and Policy at Peterson
- 9/03/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Releases Beige Book
- 9/03/2025: Wards Total Vehicle Sales
- 9/04/2025 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY
- 9/04/2025 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 9/04/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity
- 9/04/2025 at 08:30am EST: Unit Labor Costs
- 9/04/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 9/04/2025 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance
- 9/04/2025 at 08:30am EST: Exports MoM / Imports MoM
- 9/04/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / S&P Global US Composite PMI
- 9/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index/Prices Paid/New Orders/Employment
- 9/04/2025 at 11:30am EST: Fed’s Williams Speaks on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
- 9/04/2025 at 07:00pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Appears in a Modersted Q&A
- 9/05/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Change in Manufact. Payrolls
- 9/05/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg / Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
- 9/05/2025 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM/YoY/ Average Weekly Hours All Employmees
- 9/05/2025 at 08:30am EST: Unemployment Rate
- 9/05/2025 at 08:30am EST: Labor Force Participation Rate / Underemployment Rate