End of Day Summary – 8/4/2025 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

US Treasuries

Monday’s range for UST 10y: 4.19% – 4.25%, closing at 4.19%
Monday’s range for UST 30y: 4.785% – 4.86%, closing at 4.79%
Tomorrow (8/5/25): $58 billion 3y Note Auction

Jim Bianco joins Fox Business to Explain Fiscal Dominance & Why Rate Cuts Fail with Charles Payne

Intraday Commentary from Bianco Research

Despite all the talk that Q2 was the time where we would see an earnings slowdown, companies have been beating estimates at a rate higher than previous quarters and above the 5-year average.

335 companies have reported (about 2/3s), so how is Q2 growth looking compared to previous quarters? The current estimate of 9.14% is lower than the past several quarters but much higher than the full quarter estimate of 4.51 last week.

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

In Other News

OilPrice: BP’s Big Bet on Oil Pays Off in Brazil

Reuters: HNI bets on return-to-office with $2.2 billion deal for furniture maker Steelcase

CBS News: 3,200 Boeing workers who build fighter jets are on strike, their union says

SuccessfulFarming: New-crop U.S. Soybean Export Sales at 20-Year Low

Bloomberg: US INSIGHT: Data Center Growth Highlights AI Grip – In One Chart

Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak

8/05/2025 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance
8/05/2025 at 08:30am EST: Exports MoM / Imports MoM
8/05/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / Composite PMI
8/05/2025 at 09:45am EST: ISM Services Index / Prices Paid
8/05/2025 at 09:45am EST: ISM Services New Orders/ Employment
8/06/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
8/06/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed’s Cook and Collins Participate in Panel Event
8/06/2025 at 04:10pm EST: Fed’s Daly Speaks at Anchorage Economic Summit
8/07/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity
8/07/2025 at 08:30am EST: Unit Labor Costs
8/07/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
8/07/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Monetary Policy
8/07/2025 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM / Wholesale Inventories MoM
8/07/2025 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
8/07/2025 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
8/08/2025 at 10:20am EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Banking and Credit
8/09/2025 at 11:15am EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Kansas Bankers Association