End of Day Summary – 8/5/2025 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

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US Treasuries

Tuesday’s range for UST 10y: 4.185% – 4.22%, closing at 4.195%
Tuesday’s range for UST 30y: 4.765% – 4.81%, closing at 4.77%
Tomorrow (8/6/25): $42 billion 10y Note Auction

Bloomberg: Distrust in US Inflation Data Threatens $2 Trillion Market

Bloomberg: Two Former Treasury Secretaries Issue Warning on Risks to US Treasuries

Intraday Commentary from Bianco Research

*US TREASURY SETS FOUR-WEEK BILL AUCTION AT RECORD $100 BILLION

4-week auction is Thursday, August 7. Given the red headline above, expect this week’s bar to top $100B.

Note in the chart above the size of the 4-week was $55B one month ago? This week, it will be $100B. Why?

As the chart below illustrates, the Treasury must replenish its General Account (TGA). They are targeting $850B (per the QRA last week). Remember, it was run down during the debt limit fight that was resolved by the Big Beautiful Bill at the end of June.
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Why bring this up? Because this is the perfect headline to spin a million conspiracy theories. Ignore them. This is more mechanical.

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

In Other News

Bloomberg: Regional Banks Are Ripe for Mergers as DC Warms to Consolidation

Axios: Big Banks are now in Trump’s crosshairs

Fortune: Gen Zers are flocking to these Midwest housing markets where homes are about 30% cheaper than the coasts

eia: U.S. electricity peak demand set new records twice in July

Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak

8/06/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
8/06/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed’s Cook and Collins Participate in Panel Event
8/06/2025 at 04:10pm EST: Fed’s Daly Speaks at Anchorage Economic Summit
8/07/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity
8/07/2025 at 08:30am EST: Unit Labor Costs
8/07/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
8/07/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Monetary Policy
8/07/2025 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM / Wholesale Inventories MoM
8/07/2025 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
8/07/2025 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
8/08/2025 at 10:20am EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Banking and Credit
8/09/2025 at 11:15am EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Kansas Bankers Association
8/12/2025 at 06:00am EST: NFIB Small Business Optimism
8/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: Real Avg Hourly Earnings YoY / Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY
8/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI MoM / CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
8/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI YoY / CPI Ex Food and Energy YOY
8/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI Index NSA / CPI Core Index SA
8/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: Federal Budget Balance