End of Day Summary – 8/6/2025 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

US Treasuries

Wednesday’s range for UST 10y: 4.21% – 4.28%, closing at 4.22%
Wednesday’s range for UST 30y: 4.78% – 4.87%, closing at 4.81%
Tomorrow (8/7/25): $25 billion 30y Bond Auction

Fed’s Kashkari: says rate cut may be appropriate in near term
Fed’s Cook: says job revisions could point to ‘turning point’

Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs Says US Yield-Curve Shape Looks Like Zero-Rate Era

Bloomberg: Companies Squeeze in More Bond Sales Before Summer Lull Sets In

Intraday Commentary from Bianco Research

Welcome to Season One of The Apprentice – Federal Reserve
—
Betting to replace Jay Powell …
Kevin Hassett (red) and No announcement (black) are surging into the lead. This contract expires December 31st. So if Trump doesn’t FORMALLY announce someone by December 31st, then “someone else/no announcement” wins, and everything else goes to zero.
—
Kugler steps down on Friday. Her current term expires in January 2026.Trump suggested yesterday that he would appoint someone to finish out the term through January 2026. Presumably that would be Kevin Hassett.In other words, Hassett would have a five-month trial. If he passes, he’ll be reappointed in January for the subsequent 14-year term, and concurrently nominated as Fed chairman.

If Hassett fails, Trump will pick somebody else for the term starting in January and Fed Chairman (he could still pick Chris Waller, as he is already a Fed Governor).

Arbor Data Science Podcast: Starter Homes & Household Debt

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

In Other News

OilPrice: Refinery Outages Force Russia to Redirect Crude to Export Markets

Fortune: Spending on AI data centers is so massive that it’s now two-third of GDP – and it could crash the American economy

Axios: The next jobs downturn could mean an AI-induced purge of millions of workers

SupplyChainBrain: U.S. Imports Swelled, Then Dwindled in the First Half of 2025

Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak

8/07/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity
8/07/2025 at 08:30am EST: Unit Labor Costs
8/07/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
8/07/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Monetary Policy
8/07/2025 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM / Wholesale Inventories MoM
8/07/2025 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
8/07/2025 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
8/08/2025 at 10:20am EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Banking and Credit
8/09/2025 at 11:15am EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Kansas Bankers Association
8/12/2025 at 06:00am EST: NFIB Small Business Optimism
8/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: Real Avg Hourly Earnings YoY / Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY
8/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI MoM / CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
8/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI YoY / CPI Ex Food and Energy YOY
8/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI Index NSA / CPI Core Index SA
8/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: Federal Budget Balance
8/12/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on the Economy
8/13/2025 at 00:01am EST: Fed’s Barkin Repeats Remarks on the Economy
8/13/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
8/13/2025 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Monetary Policy Luncheon
8/13/2025 at 01:30pm EST: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on the Economic Outlook