US Treasuries
- Monday’s range for UST 10y: 4.12% – 4.15%, closing at 4.415%
- Monday’s range for UST 30y: 4.735% – 4.775%, closing at 4.76%
- Fed’s Musalem: says there is limited room for further rate cuts
- Fed’s Barkin: says ‘modest’ amount of tariffs going to consumers
- Fed’s Hammack: says inflation is too high, must be cautious easing
- Fed’s Miran: says policy is too tight, risking higher unemployment
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
*MIRAN: ESTIMATES NEUTRAL REAL INTEREST RATE TO BE CLOSE TO ZERO
In other words, he thinks R* is 0%.
See the long-term dots … the lowest dot is 2.625%. Assuming Miran is one of these dots, and he thinks R* is 0, then he thinks the long-run inflation rate is 2.625% … not 2%.
In the News
Bloomberg: Bond Traders Lean Into ‘Sweet Spot’ Amid Doubts on Fed Path
CNBC: Nvidia plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI as part of data center buildout
InsuranceBusiness: Florida approves two new property insurers
OilPrice: Consumers Face High Bills, States Eye PJM Control
SupplyChainBrain: Reshoring of Manufacturing Is Happening, But It’s No Short-Term Fix
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 9/23/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 9/23/2025 at 08:30am EST: Current Account Balance
- 9/23/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 9/23/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI / Services PMI/ Composite PMI
- 9/23/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Bostic Participates in Live Podcast Interview
- 9/23/2025 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index / Business Conditions
- 9/23/2025 at 12:35pm EST: Fed’s Powell Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 9/24/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 9/24/2025 at 10:00am EST: New Homes Sales / MoM / Building Permits/ MoM
- 9/24/2025 at 04:10pm EST: Fed’s Daly Gives Keynote Remarks on Monetary Policy
- 9/25/2025 at 08:20am EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on Trends for West Michigan
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: BEA Releases Annual Update of National Economic Accounts
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Advance Goods Trade Balance / Exports MoM SA / Imports MoM SA
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM / Retail Inventories MoM
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Consumption
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: GDP Price Index / Core PCE Price Index QoQ
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Durable Good Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg/ Continuing Claims
- 9/25/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Williams Gives Welcoming Remarks at US Dollar Conference
- 9/25/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Schmid Speaks at Mid-Sized Bank Coalition of America
- 9/25/2025 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales / MoM
- 9/25/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Bowman in Moderated Discussion
- 9/25/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- 9/25/2025 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Bank Stress Testing
- 9/25/2025 at 01:40pm EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks in a Panel
- 9/25/2025 at 03:30pm EST: Fed’s Daly Conversation with Mark Packard
- 9/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income & Personal Spending & Real Personal Spending
- 9/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM & PCE Price Index YoY
- 9/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index MoM & Core PCE Price Index YoY
- 9/26/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Barkin Conversation at the PIIE
- 9/26/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment & U. of Mich. Current Conditions
- 9/26/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Expectations & U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation & U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 9/26/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- 9/26/2025 at 11:00am EST: Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
- 9/26/2025 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Monetary Policy
- 9/29/2025 at 08:00am EST: ECB’s Lane, Cleveland Fed’s Hammack, BOE’s Ramsden Speak
- 9/29/2025 at 10:00am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM / Pending Home Sales NSA YoY
- 9/29/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
- 9/29/2025 at 06:00pm EST: Fed’s Bostic Moderates a Conversation with Delta CEO