US Treasuries
- Tuesday’s range for UST 10y: 4.11% – 4.145%, closing at 4.12%
- Tuesday’s range for UST 30y: 4.725% – 4.76%, closing at 4.735%
- Fed’s Goolsbee: says inflation dictates careful pace of rate cuts
- Fed’s Bowman: says FOMC needs to act decisively to support jobs
- Fed’s Bostic: says he’s worried about inflation, sees more coming
- Fed’s Powell: reiterates no risk-free path for Fed amid threats
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
FED’S GOOLSBEE: WE DID NOT MOVE INFLATION TARGET
FED’S GOOLSBEE: HAVE TO GET INFLATION 2%, PERIOD
FED’S GOOLSBEE: HAVE TO GET INFLATION 2%, PERIOD
Jim Bianco: He says they have to inflation get to 2%. PERIOD. But, the inflation rate is above 2% right now and it’s trending higher.
So how does cutting rates 100 to 125 basis points lower the inflation rate to a target it hasn’t been to an almost 6 years?
FED’S BOSTIC: I’D BE OPEN TO USING RANGE FOR INFLATION TARGET
FED’S BOSTIC: RIGHT NOW I THINK NEUTRAL REAL RATE IS AROUND 1.25%
FED’S BOSTIC: MOVE UP IN NEUTRAL RATE IS A WELCOME THING
Jim Bianco: Bostic is still assuming 2% is the target inflation rate. Again, they haven’t reached it in six years. Inflation is actually 3%, and R-Star is 1.25%. As Bostic said above, the the Fed is already too loose.
In the News
Bloomberg: US High-Grade Bond Market Is Having Its Busiest September Ever
AI-CIO: Family Offices Brace for Trade Disputes
SuccessfulFarming: U.S. Soybean Harvest Starts with No Sign of Chinese Buying as Brazil Sets Export Record
Car Dealership Guy: Volvo Accelerates Investment in S.C. Plant, Will Introduce Hybrid By 2030
Arbor Data Science Podcast: Current State of the Auto Market
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 9/24/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 9/24/2025 at 10:00am EST: New Homes Sales / MoM / Building Permits/ MoM
- 9/24/2025 at 04:10pm EST: Fed’s Daly Gives Keynote Remarks on Monetary Policy
- 9/25/2025 at 08:20am EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on Trends for West Michigan
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: BEA Releases Annual Update of National Economic Accounts
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Advance Goods Trade Balance / Exports MoM SA / Imports MoM SA
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM / Retail Inventories MoM
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Consumption
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: GDP Price Index / Core PCE Price Index QoQ
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Durable Good Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 9/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg/ Continuing Claims
- 9/25/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Williams Gives Welcoming Remarks at US Dollar Conference
- 9/25/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Schmid Speaks at Mid-Sized Bank Coalition of America
- 9/25/2025 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales / MoM
- 9/25/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Bowman in Moderated Discussion
- 9/25/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- 9/25/2025 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Bank Stress Testing
- 9/25/2025 at 01:40pm EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks in a Panel
- 9/25/2025 at 03:30pm EST: Fed’s Daly Conversation with Mark Packard
- 9/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income & Personal Spending & Real Personal Spending
- 9/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM & PCE Price Index YoY
- 9/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index MoM & Core PCE Price Index YoY
- 9/26/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Barkin Conversation at the PIIE
- 9/26/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment & U. of Mich. Current Conditions
- 9/26/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Expectations & U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation & U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 9/26/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- 9/26/2025 at 11:00am EST: Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
- 9/26/2025 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Monetary Policy
- 9/29/2025 at 08:00am EST: ECB’s Lane, Cleveland Fed’s Hammack, BOE’s Ramsden Speak
- 9/29/2025 at 10:00am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM / Pending Home Sales NSA YoY
- 9/29/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
- 9/29/2025 at 06:00pm EST: Fed’s Bostic Moderates a Conversation with Delta CEO
- 9/30/2025 at 06:00am EST: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks at Finland Central Bank Conference
- 9/30/2025 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM
- 9/30/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA/ YoY NSA
- 9/30/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS US HPHI YoY NSA
- 9/30/2025 at 09:45am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
- 9/30/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings/ Rate
- 9/30/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Quits Level /Rate
- 9/30/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Layoffs Level/ Rate
- 9/30/2025 at 10:00am EST: Conf . Board Consumer Confidence/ Present Situation / Board Expectations
- 9/30/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
- 9/30/2025 at 08:30pm EST: Fed’s Jefferson Gives Keynote Speech