US Treasuries
- Friday’s range for UST 10y: 4.15% – 4.19%, closing at 4.185%
- Weekly range for UST 10y: 4.095% – 4.20%
- Friday’s range for UST 30y: 4.715% – 4.77%, closing at 4.765%
- Weekly range for UST 30y: 4.715% – 4.77%
- Fed’s Barkin: says Risks to Employment and Inflation are Limited
- Feds’ Bowman: says Fed Should Move to Smallest Possible Balance Sheet
TIPS by Maturity (data through 9/17/25)
Week over Week Changes by Maturity
- < 2 years: $22.9 Bn on 9/10/25 to $19.0 Bn on 9/17/25 = ($3.9 Bn)
- 2 – 6 years: $44 Mn on 9/10/25 to $705 Mn on 9/17/25 = $66 Mn
- 6 – 11 years: $4.0 Bn on 9/10/25 to $3.8 Bn on 9/17/25 = ($0.2 Bn)
- > 11 years: $1.0 Bn on 9/10/25 to $3.8 Bn on 9/17/25 = $2.8 Bn
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
Jay Powell on Tariffs Last Week…
So our expectation, and you can see this consistently through the year, has been that inflation will move up this year, but that the—basically, because of the effects on goods prices from tariffs—but that those will turn out to be a one-time price increase, as opposed to creating an inflationary process. That’s been our forecast. Pretty much every—all the individual forecasts say that.
This only works if tariffs are a one-time move. THEY ARE NOT!
Trump this morning:
*TRUMP: 100% TARIFF ON BRANDED, PATENTED PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCT
*TRUMP PLANS TO IMPOSE 25% TARIFF ON TRUCK IMPORTS FROM OCT 1
*US TO IMPOSE 50% TARIFF ON KITCHEN CABINETS, BATHROOM VANITIES
*TRUMP PLANS TO IMPOSE 25% TARIFF ON TRUCK IMPORTS FROM OCT 1
*US TO IMPOSE 50% TARIFF ON KITCHEN CABINETS, BATHROOM VANITIES
Tariffs this year:
Prices continue to advance, not acting like a one-time thing.
And it is showing up in Goods Inflation (black):
In the News
OilPrice: OPEC+ Oil Production Hike May Not Be as Steep as Feared
Bloomberg: Big Farming Is Eating Up More of the Amazon
Reuters: Trump slaps new US tariffs on drugs, trucks and furniture
Arbor Data Science: Past Recession Indicators – Are They Reliable?
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 9/29/2025 at 08:00am EST: ECB’s Lane, Cleveland Fed’s Hammack, BOE’s Ramsden Speak
- 9/29/2025 at 10:00am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM / Pending Home Sales NSA YoY
- 9/29/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
- 9/29/2025 at 06:00pm EST: Fed’s Bostic Moderates a Conversation with Delta CEO
- 9/30/2025 at 06:00am EST: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks at Finland Central Bank Conference
- 9/30/2025 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM
- 9/30/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA/ YoY NSA
- 9/30/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS US HPHI YoY NSA
- 9/30/2025 at 09:45am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
- 9/30/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings/ Rate
- 9/30/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Quits Level /Rate
- 9/30/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Layoffs Level/ Rate
- 9/30/2025 at 10:00am EST: Conf . Board Consumer Confidence/ Present Situation / Board Expectations
- 9/30/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
- 9/30/2025 at 01:30pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Participates in a Q&A at Midwest Agriculture Co
- 9/30/2025 at 07:10pm EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks in Moderated Conversation
- 10/01/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 10/01/2025 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 10/01/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing
- 10/01/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid / New Orders / Employment
- 10/01/2025 at 10:00am EST: Construction Spending MoM
- 10/01/2025: Wards Total Vehicle Sales
- 10/02/2025 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY
- 10/02/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims/ Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg/ Continuing Claims
- 10/02/2025 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders/ Factory Orders Ex Trans
- 10/02/2025 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
- 10/02/2025 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air/ Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 10/02/2025 at 10:30am EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks at University of Texas Conference
- 10/03/2025 at 06:05am EST: Fed’s Williams Speaks in Amsterdam
- 10/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
- 10/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Two-Month Payroll Net Revisions
- 10/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Private Payrolls / Change in Manufact. Payrolls
- 10/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg
- 10/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Unemployment Rate
- 10/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM / YoY
- 10/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Average Weekly Hours All Employees
- 10/03/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / Composite PMI
- 10/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index / Prices Paid / New Orders/ Employment
- 10/03/2025 at 01:40pm EST: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on Economic Outlook