US Treasuries
Treasuries and equities rallied to start the week, while oil prices declined. The yield on the 10 year Note traded in a narrow range, closing at 4.68%.
Jim Bianco: The all-time high in the S&P 500 was 7609, set on June 2nd. As I write now, the S&P is at 7602, up 112 points or 1.5% on the day.
- 10s closed on Monday at 4.68 [Monday’s range in 10s: 4.665/4.70]
- 2s closed on Monday at 4.25 [Monday’s range in 2s: 4.225/4.26]
- 2y – 5y: + 14 bps
- 2y – 10y: + 42 bps
Bloomberg: Central Banks Let Markets Do Heavy Lifting as Iran War Adds Risk
Join Us For Our Next Conference Call on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, Featuring Jim Bianco
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco:
Bloomberg: US Factory Activity Expands at Strongest Pace Since 2022
Right now, price is paid from manufacturers. It’s just following the price of crude oil around.
The new orders index from this survey is considered one of the ten leading economic indicators. It ticked up again, too.
The purchasing managers are saying that manufacturing businesses are hiring.
The problem with the economy is that there is no problem.
The problem, therefore, becomes a strong economy, sticky inflation, and high nominal growth, which means upward pressure on interest rates.
On Deck This Week
- JOLTS will be released on Tuesday, 8/4/26
- Quarterly Refunding Announcement will be on Wednesday, 8/5/26
- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls will be released on Friday, 8/7/26
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Commodities
- Gold decreased to $4,043.84 an ounce [75% of its recent high of $5,417 an ounce on 1/28/26]
- Silver was relatively unchanged at $58.00 an ounce [50% of its recent high of $116.70 an an ounce on 1/28/26]
- Copper increased to 654.30 [98% of its recent high of 667 on 6/2/26]
Intraday the News
- Farm Progress: Is the U.S. cattle industry actually done shrinking?
- Arbor Data Science: Housing (Un)Affordability
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speakers
- 8/04/2026 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS
- 8/04/2026 at 07:15pm EST: Fed’s Schmidt Speaks on Monetary Policy
- 8/05/2026 at 04:05pm EST: Fed’s Cook speaks on Economic Outlook
- 8/05/2026 at 07:35pm EST: Fed’s Daly Delivers Keynote Remarks
- 8/06/2026 at 05:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY
- 8/06/2026 at 05:30pm EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks at the Center for Public Policy Debate
- 8/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Continuing Claims
- 8/07/2026 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
- 8/07/2026 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Barkin Speaks at NABE Event
- 8/08/2026 at 12:45pm EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks in Fireside Chat
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Noteworthy Before-the-Open Earnings Release
|
Company |
Symbol |
Earnings estimate |
|
Ball Corp |
BALL |
$0.99 per share |
|
Caterpillar |
CAT |
6.20 |
|
Duke Energy |
DUK |
1.30 |
|
DuPont |
DD |
1.76 |
|
Energizer |
ENR |
0.83 |
|
Fidelity Nat’l Info |
FIS |
1.47 |
|
Grainger |
GWW |
11.3 |
|
McDonald’s |
MCD |
3.32 |
|
Pfizer |
PFE |
0.68 |
|
Spotify |
SPOT |
2.76 |
|
Sysco |
SYY |
1.51 |
Noteworthy After-the-Close Earnings Release
|
Company |
Symbol |
Earnings estimate |
|
Advanced Micro Devices |
AMD |
$1.61 per share |
|
Paramount Skydance |
PSKY |
0.16 |
|
Prudential |
PRU |
3.50 |
|
SpaceX |
SPCX |
-0.29 |
|
Voya Financial |
VOYA |
1.99 |