US Treasuries
Treasury yields climbed higher as oil prices rose (WTI crude increased to $77.52 a barrel) with Trump restarting the Iranian blockade. Treasuries also responded to comments from Fed Governor Waller on interest rate hikes.
- Fed’s Waller: Says Fed May Need to Raise Rates to Tame Core Inflation
- 10s closed on Monday at 4.61 [Monday’s range in 10s: 4.565/4.615]
- 2s closed on Monday at 4.26 [Monday’s range in 2s: 4.21/4.275]
- 2y – 5y: + 10 bps
- 2y – 10y: + 35 bps
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
Remember, the Fed no longer provides forward guidance. Warsh wants to go to the market to “signal” what it thinks it should do. Well Kevin … the market is “signaling.” Are you listening? The 47% was in reaction to Chris Waller’s speech today.
Effectively, Waller signaled an inflation beat tomorrow sets up a July 29 hike.
June MoM CPI
Headline – 0.1% (as we detailed today, gasoline prices are subtracting 0.4% from this measure)
Core 0.2%
June YoY CPI
Headline 3.8% (from 4.2%, again from gasoline)
Core 2.9% (unchanged from 2.9%)
Bottom line …
- 0.3% June Core CPI and the Fed hikes on July 29
- 0.2% we debate
- 0.1% and no hike.
Should the Fed raise rates?
I think the phrase that describes this period is at the top of this chart: “When the Fed starts panicking, I can stop panicking“
The top panel is the 10-year break-even rate, and the bottom panel is the 10-year yield. The red area shows when the Fed was hiking rates, and the green area shows when they were cutting rates.
- When the Fed is hiking rates, the market calms down about inflation, and break-evens fall. (top)
- When the Fed is cutting rates, the market perceives that the Fed is not concerned about inflation. Break-evens stop falling.
If the Fed wants 10-year yields to stop rising, it should start panicking a bit about inflation and hike rates. Then bond investors will calm down.
Join Us For Our Next Conference Call, Wednesday, July 15th at 9:00am CT, Featuring Jim Bianco
Commodities
- Gold decreased to $3,989.85 an ounce [72% of its recent high of $5,417 an ounce on 1/28/26]
- Silver decreased to $57.39 an ounce [49% of its recent high of $116.70 an an ounce on 1/28/26]
- Copper remained relatively unchanged at 623.30 [93% of its recent high of 667 on 6/2/26]
On Deck This Week:
- Inflation data: CPI will be released tomorrow, Tuesday, 7/14/26, followed by PPI on Wednesday, 7/15/26
- Fed Chair Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services tomorrow, Tuesday, 7/14/26 at 10:00am EST and before the Senate Banking Committee on its Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report on Wednesday, 7/15/26 at 10:00am EST
- Major Banks Kick Off Q2 Earnings Season tomorrow, Tuesday, 7/14/26 (before the open): JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citi and Wells Fargo, followed by Morgan Stanley and PNC who will report on Wednesday, July 15th
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
S&P 500 Put / Call Ratio
- CBOE SPX Put/Call Ratio (open interest) on 7/10/2026: 1.35
- CBOE SPX Put/Call Ratio (volume) on 7/10/2026: 1.12
Intraday the News
- Bloomberg: Robinhood Eyes Its First Bond Sales Backed by Credit Card Bills
- Insurance NewsNet: Insurance industry employment shows disturbing declines
- Redfin: U.S. Home Prices Hit All-Time High, Driven in Park By Big Upticks in San Francisco and West Palm Beach
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speakers
- 7/14/2026 at 08:30am EST: CPI MoM / YoY
- 7/14/2026 at 10:00am EST: Fed Chair Warsh Testifies at House Financial Service Cmte
- 7/14/2026 at 12:40pm EST: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Artificial Intelligence
- 7/14/2026 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee in Fireside Chat
- 7/14/2026 at 01:30pm EST: Fed’s Cook Speaks at Conference on Financial Inclusion
- 7/14/2026 at 02:55pm EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Conference on Financial Inclusion
- 7/15/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM / YoY
- 7/15/2026 at 08:45am EST: Fed’s Williams Delivers Keynote Remarks
- 7/15/2026 at 10:00am EST: Fed Chair Warsh Testifies Before Senate Banking Committee
- 7/15/2026 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Cook Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 7/15/2026 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Releases Beige Book
- 7/15/2026 at 06:30pm EST: Fed’s Musalem Delivers Welcome Remarks
- 7/16/2026 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales
- 7/16/2026 at 10:00am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index & Pending Home Sales MoM / YoY
- 7/16/2026 at 12:30pm EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks on the Economy and Monetary Policy
- 7/16/2026 at 01:25pm EST: Fed’s Schmid Speaks at Kansas City Fed Economic Forum
- 7/16/2026 at 07:00pm EST: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy
- 7/18/2026 – 7/30/2026 : Fed’s External Communication Blackout
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Noteworthy Before-the-Open Earnings Release
|
Company |
Symbol |
Earnings estimate |
|
Bank of America |
BAC |
$1.12 per share |
|
Citigroup |
C |
2.73 |
|
Ericsson |
ERIC |
0.11 |
|
Goldman Sachs |
GS |
14.47 |
|
JPMorgan Chase |
JPM |
5.58 |
|
Wells Fargo |
WFC |
1.72 |
Noteworthy After-the-Close Earnings Release
|
Company |
Symbol |
Earnings estimate |
|
Phoenix Education Partners |
PXED |
$1.32 |