End of Day Summary – July 20, 2026

US Treasuries

The yield on the Ten year Note rose 6 bps, closing at 4.60%

• 10s closed on Monday at 4.60    [Monday’s range in 10s: 4.54/4.605] 
• 2s closed on Monday at 4.21      [Monday’s range in 2s: 4.16/4.23]
• 2y – 5y:   + 11   bps
• 2y – 10y: + 38   bps  

Bloomberg: Money Funds Keep Cash Closer as Fed Leaves Markets Guessing

Intraday News From Jim Bianco

Back above $4

 

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There is still a 17% probability that the Fed hikes next week (July 29). And it has moved UP from last week. Yes, it is well less than 50%, so a hike is not expected. But why the residual of 17%? Why is the market allowing you to sell this and pocket this 17%.

• See Warsh; based on his comments last week (House/Senate Testimony), he is over on the hawkish extreme.
• Remember this Fed is about getting seven votes. And given where these members are, getting 7 votes for a hike is not a big reach.

A September hike has been above 50% for over a month.

 

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On Deck This Week

• Alphabet kicks off quarterly earnings from AI hyperscalers on Wednesday, 7/22/26 

Treasury Auctions this week:

• $13 billion UST 20 year Bond Auction (Reopening) on Wednesday, 7/22/26
• $21 billion UST 10 year TIPS auction on Thursday, 7/23/26 

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Commodities

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Upcoming US Treasury Supply 

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S&P 500 Put / Call Ratio

• CBOE SPX Put/Call Ratio (open interest) on 7/16/2026: 1.37
• CBOE SPX Put/Call Ratio (volume) on 7/16/2026: 1.18

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Intraday the News

• Eric Balchunas on X: 

• Successful Farming: Product of USA Label Gains Momentum With Meat and Poultry Companies 
• Newsweek: The States Where Home Insurance Now Costs More Than Property Taxes