End of Day Summary – July 22, 2026

US Treasuries

The yield on the Ten year Note rose to 4.655% as oil prices advanced with WTI Crude at $87.04 a barrel.

• 10s closed on Wednesday at 4.655  [Wednesday’s range in 10s: 4.62/4.66] 
• 2s closed on Wednesday at 4.30      [Wednesday’s range in 2s: 4.245/4.31]
• 2y – 5y:   + 10   bps
• 2y – 10y: + 35   bps  

Treasury Auction tomorrow: $21 billion UST 10 year TIPS 

Upcoming US Treasury Supply 

Bloomberg: US 30-Year Yield Raises Alarm in Longest Run Above 5% Since 2007

“The US 30-year bond yield is trading above 5% for the longest stretch since the dawn of the financial crisis, echoing investor concerns about a growing debt pile and sticky inflation.

Bloomberg: The AI Race Has a Bond Market Problem

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Intraday News From Bianco Research 

Jim Bianco: Brent Oil is up >36% since July 2nd. 

Again, the price of oil is dictating this war, not the war dictating the price of oil. And this is why the price doesn’t launch to $150+. Because oil is setting the terms of the war. If it wasn’t, or the war spins out of control and sets the terms, then oil will launch to >$150.

*BRENT OIL RISES ABOVE $95 A BARREL FOR FIRST TIME IN SIX WEEKS

Arbor Data Science: War… What is it Good For? Oil Refiners

Bianco Research: 

In case you missed it yesterday, the chart below from Newsclips is another way of viewing how much a higher crack spread has pushed the normal relationship between gas and crude prices out of whack.

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Just hit 36% probability of a hike next week. Definitely in play. Don’t expect any phone calls to Nick Timiraos to clarify the situation, because Wash doesn’t believe in forward guidance. Instead, Wash is looking at the 36% and concluding that the market might want him to hike.

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2s/funds at 68 bps, the widest it has been since late 2022. 2s have a couple of hikes priced in.

2s/10s continue their flattening trend since February.

There’s an old adage that goes, “When the Fed starts panicking, I can stop panicking.”

If the Fed takes inflation seriously, bond investors can stay calm. If the Fed wants to continually rationalize that inflation is not a problem, bond investors might panic. Is this why bond yields are at 5.15%?

So, if the Fed panics a little and hikes next week, bond investors can calm down. Otherwise, if the Fed fights rate hikes, the slow panic among bond investors could heat up. 

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Commodities

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Intraday the News

• Reuters: AMD to invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic; AI startup to buy up to 2GW of chips

In today’s Newsclips: The Anthropic Effect on S&P 500 Earnings

• Redfin News: Most Americans Say “Not in My Backyard” to AI Data Centers
• Arbor Data Science: Supply Chain Update

John Authors at Bloomberg: The Oil Question That Really Matters for Stocks

“At the start of July, prediction markets thought that traffic would probably return to normal by the end of the month. Now that chance is seen — surely correctly — as close to zero. Not only is the situation bad, but it’s deteriorating:”