US Treasuries
The yield on the 10 year Note rose to 4.71% today as equities sold off and the price of WTI Crude climbed to $92.24 a barrel.
Jim Bianco: 10-year now 4.70%, highest of the second term
- 10s closed on Thursday at 4.70 [Thursday’s range in 10s: 4.65/4.71]
- 2s closed on Thursday at 4.35 [Thursday’s range in 2s: 4.30/4.37]
- 2y – 5y: + 10 bps
- 2y – 10y: + 34 bps
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Bloomberg: Hedge Funds’ Favorite US Bond Trade Is Sputtering
Bloomberg: US Public Pension Growth Climbs to Highest Peak Since 2008 Crash
Intraday News From Bianco Research
The National Average of Gasoline is now $4.09, up 8% since “Kinetic Phase” began after the MOU collapsed in early July.
And gasoline prices are set to move a lot higher as Brent Crude Oil is up over 40% this month.
And Brent is again approaching $100…
Update: *BRENT CRUDE HITS $100 A BARREL ON RED SEA, IRAN SUPPLY THREATS
Real Yields operate with cycles or regimes.
Before this (left blue), the 10-year real yield averaged 2.74%. I have argued the current period (right blue) should look like the pre-money-printing era (left blue), and it does. It also means 10-year real yields can go much higher before they become too restrictive (probably above 3%).
What would cause 10-year real yields to go higher? Sticky inflation (which we have now) and a Fed that does not “choose” (as Warsh terms it) to act on it.
Commodities
- Gold decreased to $4,046.71 an ounce [75% of its recent high of $5,417 an ounce on 1/28/26]
- Silver decreased to $57.47 an ounce [49% of its recent high of $116.70 an an ounce on 1/28/26]
- Copper decreased to 629.70 [94% of its recent high of 667 on 6/2/26]
Intraday the News
- OilPrice: U.S. Refinery Utilization Hits 96.2% as Fuel Markets Tighten Worldwide
- Arbor Data Science: War.. What is it Good Far? Oil Refiners
- SupplyChainBrain: Chinese Autos Face U.S. Ban Under Bill Moved by Senate Panel
- ABC News: Foreclosures on the rise nationwide, data shows
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speakers
- 7/24/2026 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI
- 7/24/2026 at 10:00am EST: New Home Sales
- 7/27/2026 at 08:30am EST: Durable Goods Orders & Cap Goods Orders
- 7/28/2026 at 08:30am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Change / Retail & Wholesale Inventories MoM
- 7/29/2026 at 01:00pm EST: FOMC Rate Decision
- 7/30/2026 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income/Spending and PCE Price Index MoM & YoY
- 7/30/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / GDP Annualized QoQ
- 7/18/2026 – 7/30/2026 : Fed’s External Communication Blackout
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Friday, July 24, 2026
Noteworthy Before-the-Open Earnings Release
|
Company |
Symbol |
Earnings estimate |
|
American Express |
AXP |
$4.41 per share |
|
Booz Allen Hamilton |
BAH |
1.49 |
|
Canadian National Rail |
CNI |
1.96 |
|
Charter Comm |
CHTR |
10.00 |
|
First Hawaiian |
FHB |
0.58 |
|
Flagstar Bank |
FLG |
0.06 |
|
Gentex |
GNTX |
0.50 |
|
HCA |
HCA |
7.52 |
|
Lamb Weston |
LW |
0.63 |
|
Moog |
MOG.A |
2.65 |
|
NextEra Energy |
NEE |
1.10 |
|
Sensient |
SXT |
1.04 |
|
SLB |
SLB |
0.51 |
|
Tenet Healthcare |
THC |
4.26 |
|
Verizon Communications |
VZ |
1.28 |