The 10 year note traded in a narrow range, closing at 4.64%, as oil prices declined with WTI Crude falling to $82.37.
10s closed on Monday at 4.64 [Monday’s range in 10s: 4.62/4.66]
2s closed on Monday at 4.32 [Monday’s range in 2s: 4.28/4.33]
2y – 5y: + 8 bps
2y – 10y: + 32 bps
In the Media Today… Jim Bianco Joins Charles Payne on Fox Business to discuss: A Tale of Two Markets: AI Bubble vs. Real Economy
On Deck This Week
$44 billion UST 7 year Note Auction tomorrow, Tuesday, 7/28/26
FOMC Rate Decision on Wednesday, 7/29/26
PCE Price Index will be released on Thursday, 7/30/26
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Intraday News From Bianco Research
National Average of Gas price in the US
June 17 (last FOMC meeting): $3.99; Yesterday (latest data): $4.11
Red Headline tanking the stock market
*ASML FALLS 6.4% TO DAY’S LOW ON REPORT CHINA STARTS DUV OUTPUT
ASML just dropped 6.4% to the day’s low on reports that China has started mass-producing its own DUV lithography machines.
DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) is the workhorse technology that prints circuits onto silicon wafers using 193nm light. It’s less advanced than EUV (which China is still banned from buying), but it’s still critical. Chinese chipmakers have been relying heavily on ASML’s immersion DUV tools for mature nodes and even some advanced chips via multi-patterning.
This market is crapping its pants that China will undercut AI by offering the same thing at a far lower price. They will.
But barely 2% of the world is using AI (agentic, which is the real productivity gains, not generative (ask a question, get an answer)). So we need it cheaper so its usage can get 50x to 100x larger.
In 2 to 5 years, you will barely use a keyboard. You will not use Outlook or Excel. Your AI agent (agentic AI) will handle all of this for you as if you hired a highly paid assistant. And we will need 12,000 data centers to power all this.
ASML SHARES SUSPENDED AFTER 8% DROP
Out Last Friday, the Debut of the new Bianco Research Podcast: Rational Dissent
Commodities
Gold increased to $4,076.27 an ounce [75% of its recent high of $5,417 an ounce on 1/28/26]
Silver was little changed at $58.31 an ounce [50% of its recent high of $116.70 an an ounce on 1/28/26]
Copper increased to 633.90 [94% of its recent high of 667 on 6/2/26]