End of Day Summary – July 28, 2026

US Treasuries

The yield on the 10 year Note declined to 4.585%, closing at 4.60%, as oil prices continued to retreat with WTI Crude at $79.24 a barrel.

• 10s closed on Tuesday at 4.60      [Tuesday’s range in 10s: 4.585/4.63] 
• 2s closed on Tuesday at 4.27        [Tuesday’s range in 2s: 4.25/4.305]
• 2y – 5y:   + 8  bps
• 2y – 10y: + 33  bps  

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On Deck This Week

• FOMC Rate Decision tomorrow, Wednesday, 7/29/26
• Notable Tech Earnings Releases tomorrow, Wednesday, 7/29/26: Microsoft and Meta (after the close), followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday, 7/30/26 (after the close) 
• PCE Price Index will be released on Thursday, 7/30/26
• Next Week:  Quarterly Refunding Announcement on Wednesday, 8/5/26

Upcoming US Treasury Supply 

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Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco 

1-year inflation swaps are useful — like a point spread. That doesn’t mean you should treat them like a sure thing.

Before last year’s Super Bowl, the Chiefs were about a 1½-point favorite. The Eagles won by 18 (40–22). The line told you something. The final outcome was something else. Same idea with 1-year inflation swaps. They are a real market signal. They are not a precise forecast of where inflation will be in a year.

The chart shows the miss: on average, the swap has been too low on inflation (red below blue since 2020), and the errors get large during regime shifts (2022) — exactly when people lean on these numbers the hardest. Don’t assign too much precision to inflation swaps.

Since early July, crude (black) has jumped hard while 1-year inflation swaps (red) have fallen. This is not a normal wiggle.

Swaps traders are reading energy as a one-off and expect the shock to fade. This will cause the oil to work its way back down. Maybe this scenario plays out, but I don’t see a lot of military strategists on swaps desks, and, given the error rate above, take their oil path or the inflation outcome cautiously.

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Commodities

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Intraday the News

• CNBC: Apple plans to lease iPhones for $17.99 a month through partnership with Klarna
• Farm Progress: Beef prices drop $39 as cattle imports set to resume in August 
• OilPrice: Australia Eyes New Oil Refinery to Reduce Reliance on Imported Fuels

Australia’s government has launched a feasibility study for an oil refinery that, if approved, would be the first such facility to be built in the country in six decades.

• Redfin: Vacation-Home Mortgages Tick Up For First Time Since Pandemic Boom