End of Day Summary – July 30, 2026

US Treasuries

The yield on the 10 year Note traded in a narrow range today, closing at 4.66%. 

• 10s closed on Thursday at 4.66      [Thursday’s range in 10s: 4.65/4.71] 
• 2s closed on Thursday at 4.23        [Thursday’s range in 2s: 4.205/4.295]
• 2y – 5y:   + 14  bps
• 2y – 10y: + 43  bps  

• Bloomberg: Kevin Warsh’s Approach to Fed Policy Is Deeply Flawed 
• Bloomberg: ‘Talk Is Cheap’: Wall Street Delivers Harsh Verdict on Warsh Fed

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Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco: 

Regarding the Fed … the probability of a Fed hike in September (now the next meeting) was 107% yesterday, but now, it is 56%.

“Bond traders can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking.”

Under 50%  = no Fed panic about inflation

If not the Fed, then the bond market will have to slow inflation = even higher yields.

If, in the coming weeks, the September probability (above) falls below 50% and bond traders “panic” about inflation sending yields higher, how can the Fed reverse this before the Sept meeting?

The Fed now has 12 independent voters. Three want to hike rates now.

If Waller gives a speech saying he’s ready to hike, that would be four to hike (I’m surprised given his “Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option” comment from earlier this month; he did not dissent yesterday).

After Waller, Jefferson or Cook (Powell???) can do the same and send the message to Wall Street.

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To repeat, this is an independent Fed, and Wall Street is still struggling with what that means. You can see this in the hand-wringing about the presser, under the assumption that Warsh makes the decision. Warsh has a committee that votes policy with him (the “family fight”). The committee can signal a hike without Warsh saying a word.

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On Deck Next Week

• JOLTS will be released on Tuesday, 8/4/26
• Quarterly Refunding Announcement on Wednesday, 8/5/26

Upcoming US Treasury Supply 

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Intraday the News

• OilPrice: Goldman Sachs: Diesel Crunch Is Now the Biggest Threat in Oil Markets
• CRN: US Data Center Capacity Will ‘Double’ Despite ‘Local’ Concerns; Neoclouds Offer Channel Opportunity
• Arbor Data Science: Oil’s Outsized Role in the 2026 Commodity Rally