US Treasuries
Treasuries sold off with the yield on the 10 year Note closing at 4.74%. The weekly range for 10s was: 4.585% – 4.745%.
- 10s closed on Friday at 4.74 [Friday’s range in 10s: 4.64/4.745]
- 2s closed on Friday at 4.285 [Friday’s range in 2s: 4.225/4.30]
- 2y – 5y: + 16 bps
- 2y – 10y: + 45 bps
Bloomberg: Fed Dissenters Say Rate Hikes Needed to Tame Stubborn Inflation
Bloomberg: Costs to Hedge Against a Deeper Selloff in US Bonds Are Soaring
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco:
Since Warsh finished the presser Wednesday afternoon (not quite 48 hours ago as of this writing), the 30-year yield is up 15 bps.
When will the rise in yields stop? When the probability of a September hike gets back to 100+%, where it was right before the Fed meeting.
And what gets this probability back to 100%?
The Fed has 12 voters; 3 want to hike, and nine did not. If one or more of those nine “no votes” come out and say they will vote for a hike in September, these probabilities will go up with Warsh saying a word.
After Warsh, the person who has the most questions to answer is Chris Waller.
July 13: “Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option.”
Makes sense, so why did he not vote for a hike???
Rational Dissent Episode 2: This Is Not Your Father’s Fed
On Deck Next Week
- JOLTS will be released on Tuesday, 8/4/26
- Quarterly Refunding Announcement on Wednesday, 8/5/26
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Commodities
- Gold decreased to $4,048.86 an ounce [76% of its recent high of $5,417 an ounce on 1/28/26]
- Silver decreased to $57.74 an ounce [50% of its recent high of $116.70 an an ounce on 1/28/26]
- Copper was relatively unchanged at 647.55 [97% of its recent high of 667 on 6/2/26]
U.S. Treasury Trade Fails
As of 07/30/2026, U.S. Treasury Fails were $22.59 Billion Agency Fails were $5.61 Million
TIPS By Maturity
Week over Week Changes by Maturity
- < 2 years: $21.5 Bn on 7/15/2026 to $19.1 Bn on 7/22/2026 = ($2.4) Bn
- 2 – 6 years: $5.6 Bn on 7/15/2026 to $5.6 Bn on 7/22/2026 = $0.0 Bn
- 6 – 11 years: $2.9 Bn on 7/15/2026 to $1.8 Bn on 7/22/2026 = ($1.1) Bn
- > 11 years: $1,114 Mn on 7/15/2026 to $941 Mn on 7/22/2026 = ($173) Mn
Intraday the News
- CNBC: EV prices aren’t following the ‘law of used cars,’ analyst says – what it means for buyers and sellers
- Business Insider: These charts show how the number of Big Tech employees is changing as companies embrace AI
- CRE Daily: Florida Rents Far Outpace Wages, Fueling Housing Crisis
- Arbor Data Science: Sunshine at the Top, Clouds Below: Florida’s K-Shaped Housing Market
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speakers
- 8/03/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid / New Orders / Employment
- 8/04/2026 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS
- 8/05/2026 at 04:05pm EST: Fed’s Cook speaks on Economic Outlook
- 8/06/2026 at 05:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY
- 8/06/2026 at 05:30pm EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks at the Center for Public Policy Debate
- 8/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Continuing Claims
- 8/07/2026 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Barkin Speaks at NABE Event
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Monday, August 3, 2026
Noteworthy Before-the-Open Earnings Release
|
Company |
Symbol |
Earnings estimate |
|
CNH Industrial |
CNH |
0.10 |
|
Marriott |
MAR |
3.08 |
|
Tyson Foods |
TSN |
0.98 |
Noteworthy After-the-Close Earnings Release
|
Company |
Symbol |
Earnings estimate |
|
Palantir Technologies |
PLTR |
0.34 |
|
Sterling Infrastructure |
STRL |
5.01 |
|
Whirlpool |
WHR |
-0.06 |