US Treasuries
Treasuries continued to sell off today driven by escalating geopolitical risks and inflation worries. Oil prices climbed with WTI Crude increasing to $73.62 a barrel.
- 10s closed on Wednesday at 4.565 [Wednesday’s range in 10s: 4.535/4.595]
- 2s closed on Wednesday at 4.20 [Wednesday’s range in 2s: 4.17/4.23]
- 2y – 5y: + 10 bps
- 2y – 10y: + 36 bps
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
30-year yield. daily bar with retracements off the 5.20% yield high on May 19. Currently at 5.08%, just 12 basis points from the May peak. Note that nearby Brent Crude prices were $112 when the 30-year was 5.20% on May 19. It is now just above 5.08%, as the current Brent Crude price is $80.
The point being that bond yields are “reacting” to more than just the rise in Crude oil, as it is coming with core inflation persistently above 3%.
The 2-year is near cyclical highs (orange), and the probability of Fed hikes this year (blue) is the also near cycle highs.
The 2-year follows the Fed, and it is pricing in hikes… Over to Kevin for comments now.
Bloomberg: Fed Minutes Show ‘a Few’ Officials Saw Case for June Rate Hike
This can be a big deal. Diesel prices in Europe are soaring.
Ukraine is pounding Russia, focusing on its refineries to get it to relent in the war. It is working, as Ukraine has destroyed too much of Russia’s refining capacity for it to export diesel to Europe. The world might be awash with oil. But the refineries in Russia are offline, and those in the Middle East are shut down.
We don’t consume crude oil. We consume “products” like gasoline. And the refineries’ shortage is real.
Commodities
- Gold decreased to $4,088.18 an ounce [75% of its recent high of $5,417 an ounce on 1/28/26]
- Silver decreased to $58.45 an ounce [50% of its recent high of $116.70 an an ounce on 1/28/26]
- Copper decreased to 607.70 [91% of its recent high of 667 on 6/2/26]
On Deck:
- $22 Bn UST 30y Bond Auction (Reopening) tomorrow, Thursday, July 9th
- CPI will be released on Tuesday, July 14th and PPI will be released on Wednesday, July 15th
- Banks Kick Off Q2 Earnings Season Next Week: JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citi and Wells Fargo will report before the open on Tuesday, July 14th, followed by Morgan Stanley and PNC on Wednesday, July 15th
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
S&P 500 Put / Call Ratio
- CBOE SPX Put/Call Ratio (open interest) on July 7, 2026: 1.36
- CBOE SPX Put/Call Ratio (volume) on July 7, 2026: 1.24
In the News
- Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) on X:
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- ZeroHedge: The Great Migration: What The Dow-To-Gold Ratio Is Telling Us
- SupplyChainBrain: Canada Proposes New West-East Oil Pipeline to Bypass U.S.
- CNBC: Used EVs keep getting more expensive amid Iran war, high gas prices
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speakers
- 7/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims
- 7/09/2026 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Williams in Moderated Discussion
- 7/09/2026 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales
- 7/09/2026 at 01:30pm EST: Fed’s Logan Moderates Panel on Market Liquidity
- 7/14/2026 at 08:30am EST: CPI MoM / YoY
- 7/14/2026 at 10:00am EST: Fed Chair Warsh Testifies at House Financial Service Cmte
- 7/14/2026 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee in Fireside Chat
- 7/15/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM / YoY
- 7/15/2026 at 08:45am EST: Fed’s Williams Delivers Keynote Remarks
- 7/15/2026 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Releases Beige Book
- 7/15/2026 at 06:30pm EST: Fed’s Musalem Delivers Welcome Remarks
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Thursday, July 9, 2026
Noteworthy Before-the-Open Earnings Release
|
Company |
Symbol |
Earnings estimate |
|
PepsiCo |
PEP |
$2.21 per share |
|
Simply Good Foods |
SMPL |
$0.35 |
Noteworthy After-the-Close Earnings Release
|
Company |
Symbol |
Earnings estimate |
|
WD-40 |
WDFC |
$1.56 per share |