End of Day Summary – June 15, 2026 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

US Treasuries

Treasuries rallied on news of the US and Iran reaching a peace agreement to open the Straight of Hormuz. Oil prices plummeted with WTI crude oil falling to $80.96 a barrel.

10s closed on Monday at 4.465 [Monday‘s range in 10s: 4.42/4.47]
2s closed on Monday at 4.06 [Monday’s range in 2s: 4.02/4.06]
2y – 5y: + 12 bps
2y – 10y: + 40 bps

Jim Bianco: For all the talk that this deal means inflation will collapse … the 30-year yield just turned higher on the day.

On Deck Tomorrow, Tuesday (6/16/26): $13 billion UST 20y Bond (Reopening) Auction, followed by a $24 billion UST 5y TIPS (Reopening) Auction on Thursday (6/18/26)
Key Event This Week: Wednesday (6/17/26): First FOMC Interest-Rate Decision under Chairman Kevin Warsh

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Intraday News Moving Markets

Bloomberg: Companies Rush to Borrow Cash as US-Iran Deal spurs Bullish Mood

Bloomberg: Nvidia Kicks Off First High-Grade Bond Offering Since 2021
*NVIDIA DRAWS $85 BILLION OF INVESTOR DEMAND FOR JUMBO BOND SALE

Jim Bianco:

Alphabet raised $85 billion two weeks ago
Supermicro raised $7 billion last week (they are small)
SpaceX (Xai/Grok) raised $75 billion on Friday
Now Nvidia raised $85 billion

For all the talk of the AI spending being a bubble and unsustainable … they can raise seemingly unlimited money anytime they want.

Commodities

Gold increased to $4,325 an ounce [80% of its recent high of $5,417 an ounce on 1/28/26]
Silver increased to $70.12 an ounce [61% of its recent high of $116.70 an an ounce on 1/28/26]
Copper increased to $6.50 per pound [97% of its recent high of $6.67 per pound on 6/2/26]

Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco

*US OFFICIAL: EXPECT 40-50 SHIPS THROUGH HORMUZ DAILY SOON

As this chart shows, 40 to 50 will be less than half normal traffic before the war.

Interestingly, Polymarket defines “reopen” as a 7-day average of 60 ships.

Recall that in November 2023, the Houthis started attacking shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb (southern entry to the Red Sea). They did far less than Iran has done in the Strait of Hormuz.

As this chart shows, the Bab el-Mandeb has still not returned to normal almost three years later.