US Treasuries
- Treasuries rallied on lower oil prices as Iran peace deal allowed for the reopening of the Straight of Hormuz.
- 10s closed on Thursday at 4.45 [Thursday‘s range in 10s: 4.42/4.46]
- 2s closed on Thursday at 4.18 [Thursday’s range in 2s: 4.14/4.21]
- 2y – 5y: + 5 bps
- 2y – 10y: + 27 bps
- Bloomberg: The Squeeze on Liquidity is Just Getting Started
- On Deck Next Week: Thursday (6/25/26): PCE
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Commodities
- Gold declined to $4,202.33 an ounce [78% of its recent high of $5,417 an ounce on 1/28/26]
- Silver declined to $65.36 an ounce [56% of its recent high of $116.70 an an ounce on 1/28/26]
- Copper declined to 637.25 [96% of its recent high of 667 on 6/2/26]
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco 
If the month ended now, gasoline would subtract -0.26% from June CPI (third panel).
The Cleveland Fed has June CPI at 0%. Y/Y at 4%. Core y/y at 2/85%
Given that Warsh basically told us to ignore the payroll report (“echo of the past”) and focused on inflation. The potential of a tame June CPI is not reversing the market’s pricing of 1 1/2 rate HIKES this year.
Remember:
- The BoJ has hiked 5 times (starting in early 2024)
- The Reserve Bank of Australia has hiked 3 times (starting in January)
- The ECB hiked last week.
So a global hiking cycle is well underway.
In the News
OilPrice: The Invisible Energy Crisis Threatening to Derail the AI Boom
MarineLink: Fertilizer Shipments Should Bounce Back with U.S.-Iran Deal
CarDealershipGuy: Carmax Grows Revenue and Unit Sales, Signaling Intensifying Competition in Used Cars
Patrick De Hann @GasBuddyGuy on X:
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 6/23/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Change
- 6/23/2026 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
- 6/23/2026 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index and Business Conditions
- 6/24/2026 at 10:00am EST: New Home Sales
- 6/25/2026 at 08:30am EST: Personal & Real Personal Spending / Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 6/25/2026 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM & YoY / Core PCE Price Index MoM & YoY
- 6/25/2026 at 08:30am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Initial Jobless Claims & Continuous Claims
- 6/25/2026 at 03:40pm EST: Fed’s Williams Gives Keynote Remarks
- 6/25/2026 at 05:30pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee in Moderated Discussion