End of Day Summary – June 30, 2026

US Treasuries

Treasury yields climbed higher to end the quarter with the yield on the 10y Note at 4.43%

• 10s closed on Tuesday at 4.43          [Tuesday’s range in 10s: 4.36/4.43] 
• 2s closed on Tuesday at 4.135          [Tuesday’s range in 2s: 4.09/4.14]
• 2y – 5y:   + 5   bps
• 2y – 10y: + 28 bps  

Bloomberg: Treasury Market’s June Rally Bails Out Quarter and First Half

CNBC: Cleveland Fed President Hammack sees AI fueling inflation, says rate hikes may be necessary

---

Commodities

---

Economic Releases On Deck This Week:

• Change in Nonfarm Payrolls will be released on Thursday, July 2, 2026

---

Upcoming US Treasury Supply 

---

*US MAY JOB OPENINGS 7.594M; EST. 7.296M

This chart shows Powell’s approach to JOLTS. Compare the number of open jobs (Blue) versus the number of unemployed (orange).

The second panel is the difference (still positive). The third panel is the difference as a percentage.

Takeaway: The labor market is still doing well. Companies are advertising for 7.59 million jobs. And if it’s more than the number of unemployed, Paul would argue it signifies a decent labor market.

Another metric of interest is layoffs. The percentage is not spiking. Also suggests a decent labor market.

The Chicago ISM was released today, one of the first “June” data points. The National ISM is out tomorrow.

Note where this index was in November, and also note that it had its biggest jump in 6 years in May. So there was some pullback in June, but it’s still well above 50. This suggests that even in Chicago, where manufacturing businesses are terrorized by crime and taxes, think the economy is okay.

 

---

In the News

Bloomberg: YOLO Crowd Wants Little to Do With Tech Megacaps It Once Adored

citybiz: Visa, BNY Mellon, Stripe Join Financial Giants to Launch Open USD Stablecoin Venture

Farm Policy News: Trump Suspends Duties on Moroccan Phosphate Fertilizer

ZeroHedge: As Affordability Fears Mount, $100,000 Salary Considered Low-Income in 7 California Counties