End of Day Summary – June 5, 2026 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

US Treasuries

Treasury yields surged as hot jobs data fueled bets for an interest rate hike
10s closed on Friday at 4.54 [Friday’s range in 10s: 4.45/4.55]
2s closed on Friday at 4.16 [Friday’s range in 2s: 4.02/4.175]
2y – 5y: + 12 bps
2y – 10y: + 38 bps

Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco

The problem with the US economy is inflation because it is very strong. Worries about recession are misplaced. 2-year gapped higher to 4.11%.

About 100% probability of a HIKE in 2026.

*TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN QUARTER-POINT FED RATE HIKE BY YEAR-END

2-year yield 4.15% now, the highest level since February 2025.

104% chance the Fed hikes rates this year (100% of a 25 hike, 4% of a 50 hike).

Even the White House has to admit that Warsh cannot go into this month’s meeting looking to aggressively cut rates.

On February 27, the day before the war started, 2.3 CUTS were priced in for 2026. Before you dismiss the posts above as a statement of obvious, here is what Polymarket shows.

Consider this the thinking among “degens,” which, I believe, is a good proxy for the larger retail trading community which also mirrors wealth managers and other equity traders.. They still think CUTS are on the table. So, not on the same page as professional bond traders.

*BITCOIN FALLS BELOW $60,000 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE OCTOBER 2024

Also 52% off its October 2025 high of $126K

Intraday News Moving Markets

Fed’s Hammack: Says Job Report Shows Labor Market in Balance

Commodities

Gold declined to $4,323 an ounce [80% of its recent high of $5,417 an ounce on 1/28/26]
Silver declined to $68.27 an ounce [59% of its recent high of $116.70 an an ounce on 1/28/26]
Copper traded off to $6.27 per pound [94% of its recent high of $6.67 per pound on 6/2/26]

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

US Treasury Trade Fails

As of 6/4/2026, U.S. Treasury Fails were $26.93 billion and U.S. Agency Fails were $14.80 million.

TIPS By Maturity

Week over Week Changes by Maturity

< 2 years: $24.4 Bn on 5/20/2026 to $23.5 Bn on 5/27/2026 = ($0.9) Bn
2 – 6 years: $5.2 Bn on 5/20/2026 to $3.5 Bn on 5/27/2026 = ($1.7) Bn
6 – 11 years: $1.8 Bn on 5/20/2026 to $4.0 Bn on 5/27/2026 = $2.2 Bn
> 11 years: $889 Mn on 5/20/2026 to $1,051 Mn on 5/27/2026 = $162 Mn

In the News

Visual Capitalist: Ranked: The World’s 25 Most Militarized Economies

OilPrice: North Dakota Chases A Second Bakken Boom Through Enhanced Recovery

Inside EVs: Amazon Now Has Over 50,000 Electric Vans In Its Fleet

Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak

6/06/2026 at 12:00pm EST: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Supervision & Regulation
6/09/2026 at 06:00am EST: NFIB Small Business Optimism
6/09/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Change
6/09/2026 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales
6/10/2026 at 08:30am EST: CPI
6/11/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI
6/12/2026 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations

Upcoming Earnings Releases for Monday, June 8, 2026

Noteworthy Before-the-Open Earnings Releases

Company	Symbol	Earnings estimate
Graham	GHM	$0.29 per share
The Campbell’s Company	CPB	0.48

Noteworthy After-the-Close Earnings Releases

Company	Symbol	Earnings estimate
Mission Produce	AVO	$0.05 per share
Vail Resorts	MTN	8.99

End of Day Summary – June 5, 2026

Intraday News • June 5, 2026

Edited by Kristen Radosh

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