US Treasuries
- Treasuries rallied in the morning as oil prices retreated on news that Iran gave a response to US proposals
- At the close, long-end yields were unchanged, while the front-end of the curve was cheaper
- 10s closed on Friday at 4.375
- Range in 10s for the week: 4.30/4.43
- 2s closed on Friday at 3.885
- Range in 2s for the week: 3.79/3.95
- 2y – 5y: +13 bps
- 2y – 10y: + 49 bps
Intraday News Moving Markets
- Treasuries rallied early in the morning session as oil prices retreated on news that Iran gave a response to US proposals
- Japan spent approximately $34.5 billion on Yen intervention to prop up the Yen since July 2024
- Fed Speak: Fed’s Kashkari and Hammack Say War Has Changed Rate Outlook
- President Trump announced that the US will raise the tariff rate on EU auto imports to 25%
- Fed Speak: Fed’s Bowman Says Mythos Shows ‘Dynamic Nature’ of AI Tools
Commodities
- Gold increased to $4,623 an ounce [85% of its recent high of $5,417 an ounce on 1/28/26]
- Biofuels (sunflower, canola, soybean and cooking oils) hit the highest levels since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022. The increase was driven by expectations that higher crude prices will lead to greater demand for biofuels. Biofuels (such as ethanol) help power cars which could help fulfill the energy gap.
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
TIPS by Maturity (data through 4/22/2026)
Week over Week Changes by Maturity
- < 2 years: $22.9 Bn on 4/15/2026 to $23.8 Bn on 4/22/2026 = $0.9 Bn
- 2 – 6 years: $6.3 Bn on 4/15/26 to $4.6 Bn on 4/22/2026 = ($1.7) Bn
- 6 – 11 years: $1.8 Bn on 4/15/2026 to $1.7 Bn on 4/22/2026= ($0.1) Bn
- > 11 years: $726 Mn on 4/15/2026 to $893 Mn on 4/22/2026 = $167 Mn
U.S. Treasury Trade Fails
As of 4/30/2026, U.S. Treasury Fails were $18.78 billion and U.S. Agency Fails were $6.58 million.
In the News
The Invading Sea: Drought turns southeastern US into ‘tinderbox’ as wildfires rage
Charlie Bilello on X: 
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 5/04/2026 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders / Ex Trans
- 5/04/2026 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Ex Transportation
- 5/04/2026 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 5/04/2026 at 12:50pm EST: Fed’s Williams Delivers Keynote Remarks
- 5/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance/ Imports Mom / Exports MoM
- 5/05/2026 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / S&P US Composite PMI
- 5/05/2026 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Washington Financial Symposium
- 5/05/2026 at 10:00am EST: Census Releases February and March New Home Sales
- 5/05/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index / ISM Services Prices Paid
- 5/05/2026 at 10:00am EST: New Home Sales / ISM Services New Orders
- 5/05/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Employment / JOLTS Job Openings
- 5/05/2026 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings Rate / JOLTS Quits Rate / JOLTS Quits Rate
- 5/05/2026 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Layoffs Level / JOLTS Layoffs Rate
- 5/05/2026 at 12:30pm EST: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Banking Regulation
- 5/05/2026: Building Permits / Building Permits MoM
- 5/06/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 5/06/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 5/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
- 5/06/2026 at 09:30am EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks at Mississippi Bankers Association
- 5/06/2026 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on Panel Event
- 5/07/2026 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY / Challenger Job Cuts Total
- 5/07/2026 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity / Unit Labor Costs
- 5/07/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 5/07/2026 at 10:00am EST: Census Releases February and March Construction Spending
- 5/07/2026 at 10:00am EST: Construction Spending MoM
- 5/07/2026 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
- 5/07/2026 at 02:05pm EST: Fed’s Hammack Speaks in Fireside Chat
- 5/07/2026 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
- 5/07/2026 at 03:30pm EST: Fed’s Williams in Moderated Discussion
- 5/08/2026 at 05:45am EST: Fed’s Cook Speaks on Asset Tokenization
- 5/08/2026 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
- 5/08/2026 at 08:30am EST: Change in Private Payrolls / Change in Manufact. Payrolls
- 5/08/2026 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Change
- 5/08/2026 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM and YoY / Average Weekly Hours All Employees
- 5/08/2026 at 08:30am EST: Unemployment Rate / Underemployment Rate / Labor Force Participation Rate
- 5/08/2026 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations / 1 Yr Inflation
- 5/08/2026 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 5 -10 Yr Inflation
- 5/08/2026 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM / Wholesale Trade Sales MoM
- 5/08/2026 at 07:30pm EST: Fed’s Waller, Bowman, Daly and Goolsbee on Panel