US Treasuries
- Treasuries traded off as a resurgence in inflation added speculation that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer
- 10s closed on Wednesday at 4.48 [Wednesday’s range in 10s: 4.45/4.50]
- 2s closed on Wednesday at 3.98 [Wednesday’s range in 2s: 3.975/4.01]
- 2y – 5y: + 14 bps
- 2y – 10y: + 49 bps
The funds rate is 3.50% to 3.75%. The 2-year is now 4%.
Intraday News Moving Markets
- Fed Speak: Fed’s Collins favors holding rates steady for ‘some time’
- Bloomberg: Fed Survey Shows Mounting Job Anxiety, Widespread Price Concerns
- Bloomberg: The Long Bond Is Close to Meaningless
- KEVIN WARSH CONFIRMED AS FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR IN SENATE VOTE
- On Deck tomorrow: Import and Export Price Indexes; Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims and Retail Sales
Commodities
- Gold declined to $4,693 an ounce [87% of its recent high of $5,417 an ounce on 1/28/26]
- Silver declined to $87.87 an ounce [74% of its recent high of $116.70 an an ounce on 1/28/26]
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
Now it is pricing a 43% probability of a HIKE in 2026.
The blue line is what the Fed dot plot communicated at their March 18 FOMC meeting… 2 cuts.
At the April 29 FOMC meeting, the vote was 8 – 4 to not cut rates but keep the ease bias (three voted to eliminate the ease bias, and Miran voted to cut rates). The red and green lines are the path the market is pricing for the Fed.
In the News
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 5/14/2026 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM and YoY / Import Price Index ex Petroleum
- 5/14/2026 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM and YoY
- 5/14/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 5/14/2026 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM / Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
- 5/14/2026 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas / Retail Sales Control Group
- 5/14/2026 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
- 5/14/2026 at 10:15am EST: Fed’s Schmid Speaks on Payments Innovation and Community Banking
- 5/14/2026 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Hammack Gives Opening Remarks
- 5/14/2026 at 05:45pm EST: Fed’s Williams in Moderated Discussion
- 5/14/2026 at 07:00pm EST: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Balance Sheet
- 5/15/2026 at 09:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM / Manufacturing (SIC) Production / Capacity Utilization
- 5/18/2026 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 5/18/2026 at 10:00am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 5/18/2026 at 04:00pm EST: Total Net TIC Flows / Net Long-term TIC Flows
- 5/19/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Change
- 5/19/2026 at 10:00am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM / YoY
- 5/19/2026 at 07:00pm EST: Fed’s Paulson Gives Keynote Address and Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 5/20/2026 at 06:00am EST: Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
- 5/20/2026 at 06:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 5/20/2026 at 06:00am EST: FOMC Meeting Minutes
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Thursday, May 14, 2026
Noteworthy Before-the-Open Earnings Releases
|
Company |
Symbol |
Earnings estimate |
|
Aveanna |
AVAH |
$0.13 per share |
|
Bitdeer Technologies |
BTDR |
-0.46 |
|
Canada Goose |
GOOS |
0.29 |
|
Canadian Solar |
CSIQ |
-0.82 |
|
Cellebrite DI |
CLBT |
0.05 |
|
Cormedix |
CRMD |
0.34 |
|
Forgent Power Solutions |
FPS |
0.16 |
|
Klarna Group plc |
KLAR |
-0.19 |
|
Legence Corp. |
LGN |
0.17 |
|
NIQ Global Intelligence plc |
NIQ |
0.10 |
|
Nova Measuring |
NVMI |
2.19 |
|
Versant |
VSNT |
1.51 |
|
Viking Holdings Ltd |
VIK |
-0.11 |
|
Wealthfront |
WLTH |
0.12 |
|
Wolverine |
WWW |
0.22 |
|
YETI Holdings |
YETI |
0.18 |
Noteworthy After-the-Close Earnings Releases
|
Company |
Symbol |
Earnings estimate |
|
Applied Materials |
AMAT |
$2.68 per share |
|
CAE |
CAE |
0.30 |
|
dLocal Limited |
DLO |
0.17 |
|
Figma |
FIG |
0.06 |
|
Gemini Space Station |
GEMI |
-1.03 |
|
Globant |
GLOB |
1.49 |
|
Heartflow |
HTFL |
-0.19 |
|
KinderCare Learning Companies |
KLC |
-0.01 |
|
PicS N.V. |
PICS |
0.23 |
|
Rezolute |
RZLT |
-0.18 |
|
Rumble |
RUM |
-0.09 |
|
York Space Systems |
YSS |
-0.11 |